As the words of Men At Work, "who can it be now?" run through my head, I ponder the same question for this year's Super Bowl champ. The NFL has increasingly become a quarterbacks league and Super Bowl XLIV features the best from each conference. The New Orleans Saints take on the Indianapolis Colts for a chance at football immortality Sunday, in Miami.
The Super Bowl setting should feel very familiar for most Colts players including QB Peyton Manning. It was three years ago that Manning held a wet Vince Lombardi trophy after beating the Chicago Bears in Miami. Indy's routine this year will be the same including a stay at the same hotel.
Manning won his fourth MVP this season and much of the Super Bowl talk is focused on what another win will do to his all time legacy. More impressive than statistics is how Manning leads his team. He is a coach on the field, and most forget his team is directed by a rookie head coach.
Indy won every game Manning finished, and his second half dissection of the vaunted Jets defense in the AFC championship game was seriously impressive. WR Pierre Garcon is emerging as a future star. Add that to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and surprisingly talented Austin Collie, and you got a stew going, baby.
For as much familiarity and routine the Colts have going into this game, the Saints will be equally unfamiliar with their setting. This is the first time in franchise history they will appear in a Super Bowl with only a few players having any Super Bowl experience.
The Saints are credited with restoring pride to a city struck by disaster, and their success is viewed as a thrill New Orleans natives deserve after hurricane Katrina. Louisiana is clamoring with Saints fever, and most observers without a rooting interest in this game will be cheering for the Saints to pull off the upset.
Both teams had similar seasons taking undefeated records deep in the schedule. Both are led by pass heavy, high scoring offenses. Neither team was noted for their defense, but both are solid and have made big plays throughout the year to help win games. The Colts were dealt a blow when their best defensive player, Dwight Freeney, was hobbled with a serious ankle injury in the AFC championship game. Even if he plays, his effectiveness will suffer severely along with the Colts pass rush.
Saints QB Drew Brees has been unbelievable at times this year, and a Super Bowl appearance is a testament to his brilliance. New Orleans has the ability to score 40 points against anyone, and they lead the league in points per game. The Saints defense made most of their impact forcing opponents to turn the ball over, not in dominating the line of scrimmage. They were able to do both relatively well against the Vikings in the NFC championship game forcing five turnovers, and knocking around QB Brett Favre the whole game. The game plan should be similar in Miami.
The Saints lows have been lower than the Colts, but their highs have been higher. Brees has the ability to make every player eligible to catch passes a weapon. The Saints have found interesting ways to generate points with special teams and defensive scores padding already gaudy point productions.
New Orleans avoids bad voodoo since every analyst seems to be picking Indy. Strange things happen whenever a team becomes a popular favorite in big games. I seem to recall the unbeatable New England Patriots being shocked by the New York Giants a couple of years ago.
With all the hype going to Indy, I was surprised to find how favorably the Saints match up with the Colts on paper. Brees arguably had a better year than the MVP Manning. The real difference between these teams is big game experience. The Colts have it. The Saints don't. Pretty simple.
The rhythm of a Super Bowl normally starts choppy because of nervous energy. I have never been real impressed with Manning's big game production (although he did play well in his first Super Bowl appearance). He has a tendency to start slow before picking up his game. That is the only time the Saints will have an opportunity to take control. If they can put up a nice lead early, they may be able to bury the Colts. If that does not happen, Manning will find a way to win the game. It is almost a certainty the Colts will score more second half points than the Saints.
After originally believing the Colts would easily win, the hype around Manning makes me believe in the Saints. I believe Manning will get number two before he retires because I don't see him tied with brother Eli forever. The Saints will have to shrug off their pressure and turn in a good game as the underdog. If nerves are not a factor, I don't see the Colts D being able to stop Brees.
It feels like the pressure is squarely on Manning's shoulders. If Manning does direct his team to a second Super Bowl win, he deserves to be in the all time talks. Not really Joe Montana level, but certainly Tom Brady level.
It is hard to pick against a team as hot as the Colts, but you're only hot until you lose. If New Orleans doesn't have a 14 point lead at the end of the first quarter, the Colts will win. This may be more heart than head, but I think the Saints will strike early, and hold off the Manning comeback to win a thrilling Super Bowl.
Saints: 34 Colts: 31
Nice Article Blake. It is hard to argue with anything you said. I think that this is exactly the type of game that the Saints can win. They have a solid D, if I remember correctly they were the reason the Saints won a few this year. But can they stop Peyton all night? Nope. Same on the other side though...Brees is a star already, and all he needs to put himself in the position to be talked about forever is to win this game. But, I think that Manning is the key here, and I dont see him losing. Even if they are down 21 with 5 minutes left, I still think the Colts pull it out....
ReplyDeleteAs for Manning, I thought it was interesting that you mentioned the "all time greats" talk. I personally think that you can already make a case that he is/will be the best QB of all time. One Super Bowl victory is enough, but what that dude does on the field is nothing short of masterful. Basically his game plan is "I will let you play with us until I get bored or annoyed, then I will throw 3 TDs and make you look stupid."
Ahead of Young and Montana? Brady who has killed him head to head and won two more championships? I have always felt championships are the true measure of a great qb although Ben Roethlisberger is currently challenging that thought process. I think Manning needs two to really cement himself. Right now I have him in the Marino, Favre range.
ReplyDeleteI do agree based on what we have seen this year it is hard to think Manning will lose, and that was my initial reaction. After some serious thought though I remembered several Colts losses that seemed untimely. 2003 is the year that really sticks out in my mind when they blew through the first two games of the playoffs and looked unstoppable, only to lose bad to the Pats. I realize the Saints aren't really a smart pick, more of a gut feeling pick. I think my guts were 2-5 this year so I'm not laying any money on it. If the Colts win this one, I won't pick against Manning again.
By the way, did you like the old Tecmo Bowl cover. The picture always cracks me up. It's crazy to think how much fun that game was and then compare it to xbox 360.
Good points, but you say that you have him in the range of Marino and Favre, who are the 2 guys that hold all of the records. The term "best QB of all time" has been attributed to both of those guys on numerous occasions, so if Manning is there then an argument could be made of him being the best ever. Now, it does depend on how you judge the best. Most Super Bowl wins? Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. (4) Brady deserves to be in the talks too with 3, and while Steve Young happens to be my favorite QB of all time, his one SB victory (as a starter) doesn’t quite make him eligible in that line of judging.
ReplyDeleteBUT, if you take statistical approach, Young was the most efficient QB of all time when he retired....so one could say that the measurability of players statistically should determine who the best was. So then you would put Marino at #1 or 2 without a super bowl win.
What about being there in the first place? A guy I hate(ed) was Aikman, a name we have not mentioned. He has won 3 SBs as well. And let us not forget about John Elway....5, count em 5 SB appearances, 2 victories.
Then, consistency....This is personally where I think that Manning pulls away with it. His 4 MVPs are tops, even though he split it with McNair one year, and this year it could have gone to C Johnson or even Brees. But the fact that he has been named MVP 4 times is a great feat, and to me worthy of BQBOAT talks. Whew, that was a long one, sorry about that.
and yes, I started thinking about how awesome The Niners were in that game, and how awesome Bo Jackson, Christian Okoye, and Barry Sanders were in it...actually you pretty much always pick great pictures when you post on sports and stuff.
Now let's talk Lost!!!! Maybe I should start a blog about that one, there is def. enough content.
In my mind Montana is the best all time. Bradshaw was before our time so I can't say much about him, but 4 SB wins speaks for itself. I thought Young won 2 until you reminded me so I would have to put Manning ahead of him. The next tier I would consider Elway and Brady. Then there is a third tier where I would put Manning, Favre, and Marino. Marino by sheer numbers and talent. Manning will pull ahead of these guys with the win and the MVPs really gives him the extra push. I really have a hard time saying Manning is up at the top because he has only one 1 SB. If he wins Sunday, let the discussion begin. It sounds like post worthy as we can probably talk for hours on this point.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of talking for hours, a Lost post would be too intense. I have made several guesses, but not tried to out think the show. There are so many references in every character and action that the possibilities are endless. There are so many blogs dedicated to Lost with people that have done serious research that I'm not sure what I could add other than talk about how well done the show is. I was happy to see the way the season started with the characters working on multile dimensions. I still nervously wait to see how everyone ties together. Seems like a huge task with only 13 episodes left. I'll have to give you a call to discuss.
Oops, forgot about Aikman, right up there with Brady and Elway, maybe ahead of both. But 4 super bowl wins for Montana and the iconic stature, Manning needs a couple to get there.
ReplyDeleteI am the fan you mentioned without a vested interest in either team and my sentiment is as you predicted--I think a Saints victory would be awesome. Peyton is incredible, though, and is certainly capable of taking his team to the top. Should be a good game either way!
ReplyDeleteI heard Bobby Bouche in an interview pick the Saints. The party will be better in Nawlins.
ReplyDelete