Like Mike

The NBA playoffs start tomorrow, and for me the season is just beginning. I was able to keep up with the NBA, but I didn't dig in and watch too many games from start to finish. Now that the field is pared down to 16 with the non competitive teams removed, I can get excited about upcoming games.

East

Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

If it weren't for Kevin Durant, LeBron James might be the unanimous winner of the MVP. Cleveland had another excellent regular season in the LeBron era and added some interesting components for the playoff run. Antawn Jamison and Shaq could prove very valuable additions, especially when they meet Orlando. Guarding Dwight Howard is the only reason the Cavs signed Shaq who has been injured/resting most of the season. It doesn't look like much else can get in LeBron's way to the Finals.

Chicago is very young and a big underdog in this series. That status was set before reports surfaced that head coach Vinny Del Negro got into a "physical altercation" with vice president of basketball operations John Paxson. Doesn't look good for the Bulls. Derrick Rose and a host of talented young players overachieved, but it's not their time.

I like Cleveland to sweep this series in what probably is the most lopsided pairing of the playoffs.

Cavs win 4-0

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Doesn't it seem like the Hawks have become playoff veterans? After almost derailing the Celtics championship run two seasons ago, they won a playoff series last season and just finished their best regular season in 13 years, hearkening to the days Mookie Blaylock ran the point. The Hawks averaged the fewest turnovers in the NBA and enjoy a rebounding advantage over the Bucks.

I have to admit I don't know much about Milwaukee, but I do know they far exceeded their expectations this year. They seem to have a bevy of capable role players. Unfortunately they just lost center Andrew Bogut to injury, and while Brandon Jennings is capable of scoring 50 on a good night, he is way too young to lead an underdog.

Hawks win 4-1

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

It's no secret that Boston's Big Three have showed their age since their championship two seasons ago. Without point guard Rajon Rondo this team would be downright slow. But Kevin Garnett is finally healthy and the Celtics are full of star power and experience. There is some concern that Boston did not have a strong finish to the season, but they did go 3-0 against Miami this year.

The Heat were hot to end the season and hope to continue the momentum going into the playoffs. Dwayne Wade has been out of the best NBA player conversations since his injury two seasons ago, but he has quietly picked up where he left off after winning the championship in 2006. The problem for the Heat is the lack of quality role players and depth around Wade. The pivotal matchup will be Michael Beasley against Garnett. Advantage Celtics.

This should be a great series. The Heat are 19-2 lifetime in playoff games that Wade scores 30, and he had no problem scoring in games against Boston this year. In the end I think the series goes to seven but Boston is better.

Celts win 4-3

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Orlando Magic

Orlando won the East last year getting by Lebron and the Cavs. It doesn't look like there is much else that will stand in their way again this year. Barring a Vince Carter blow up (which has happened before), super center Dwight Howard and the Magic are destined to meet the Cavs again in the Eastern Finals.

Charlotte is a feel good story this year. Head coach Larry Brown continues to amaze everyone in basketball with his successful reclamation projects. Guard Steven Jackson has proven to be a weapon in the postseason and could help the Bobcats steal a game or two.

If the Magic play their game this shouldn't be too competitive.

Magic win 4-1

West

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers

So the Thunder made the playoffs. Now what?

Oklahoma City has every reason to be proud of their team, and this season should have at least met every fans expectations. But after losing momentum via hard fought games late in the season, the Thunder have their backs against the wall against the world champion Los Angeles Lakers. The same Lakers that boast four rings on the fingers of Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson. The same Lakers that are basically the Bulls of the 1990s. Don't believe me? Take a look.

Phil Jackson = (100%) of Phil Jackson
Kobe Bryant = (90%) of Michael Jordan
Lamar Odom = (70%) of Scottie Pippen
Ron Artest = (80%) of Dennis Rodman
Pau Gasol = (120%) of Toni Kukoc
Andrew Bynum = (135%) of Luc Longley, Bill Wennington, Bill Cartwright, Will Perdue
Shannon Brown= (100%) of Ron Harper
Jordan Farmar= (80%) of John Paxson/Steve Kerr
Derek Fischer= (90%) of B.J. Armstrong

I'd say they're roughly 80% similar to the most dominating dynasty of the past 30 years. Bad news for the Thunder. In no logical way should anyone believe the Thunder have a chance to win more than two games in this series, yet I get the feeling this draw might be a blessing in disguise for OKC.

For every team but one the season ends in disappointment. Thunder fans should be happy that their young team provided some great moments this season and got themselves in the playoffs. But that's not enough for any true sports fan. No matter the circumstance, you want to see your team win the championship. If they are in the playoffs they have a chance, and if they're going to win it all, at some point it is going to go through L.A. Why not the first round?

There has been some disconnect in the Lakers locker room and the Thunder are one of the most cohesive teams in the NBA. The series has Lakers head coach Phil Jackson's attention enough to start lobbying referees while simultaneously trying to psyche out OKC's 21 year old superstar Kevin Durant by publicly saying Durant gets too many foul calls.

The Thunder are blessed with talent surrounding the NBA's scoring champion but lack playoff experience. It seems too early for this team, but the future is very bright. The only chance for OKC is to win early in L.A. and hope team Kobe implodes with frustration.

Lakers win 4-2

Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets

Most analysts have predicted this to be the hardest fought series of the first round. Denver has been fighting emotions with the absence of head coach George Karl due to cancer treatment. The Nuggets played poorly without Karl, but they were also playing without forward Kenyon Martin who will be back for the playoffs. Consistent playoff performer Chauncey Billups' leadership will be crucial and Carmelo Anthony will need to play up to his superstar potential.

Utah is the same team they have always been. Solid from top to bottom and competitive. They have been one of the most consistent franchises since the 80s. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer try to replicate the chemistry of John Stockton and Karl Malone. The Jazz have to start the series on the road and were 1-3 this season against Denver. Injuries also hampered Utah at the end of the season and health is a concern for Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko.

Challenges for both teams should make for interesting competition.

Nugs win 4-3

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

Every year looks like the year Dallas will finally rise up in the West and challenge the Lakers. This year is no different and they finished the season sharp. The addition of Shawn Marion with superstar Dirk Nowitzki and veteran Jason Kidd solidify the chances of the Mavs this season. They appear to be very deep with perennial sixth man of the year candidate Jason Terry adding points off the bench. Nowitzki and the Mavs have built a reputation of under performing in the postseason.

Just when everyone was counting the Spurs out, here they are back again with a solid core of starters that have won championships in the past. The health of Manu Ginobli has always been a big story and he appears to be ready for the series. Unfortunately, one team Dallas feels comfortable playing is the Spurs. I think San Antonio's lack of depth will cause them to fizzle early.

Mavs win 4-2

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns

Much like the Spurs, the Phoenix Suns are back in the playoffs riding momentum that most thought they wouldn't be able to capture. The talk about the Suns focused on trade rumors surrounding Amare Stoudemire. The two sides worked out their differences and perennial MVP candidate Steve Nash put together another brilliant season to lead Phoenix back to the playoffs.

Portland has steadily improved over the last few years despite whiffing big time on Greg Oden in the draft. They continued to build and add talent creating an excellent franchise. The bad news is they will have to play without superstar Brandon Roy. Without their anchor, Phoenix should be able to run over Portland.

Suns win 4-2

That's how I see the first round. The script usually reads according to plan in the NBA. With every series being seven games, it's hard for the underdogs to sneak past tough teams. While there will be several hard fought and interesting series, I would expect the elite teams to be there until the end. I will refrain from making picks beyond the first round, but I can't imagine many big upsets this season.

Good luck to the Thunder, I'll be rooting for you. But it's Kobe's world and the Lakers will have to beat themselves for OKC to move on.

If It Ain't Broke...Fix It

The Final Four teams are set, the NBA season is closing and the playoff race is unraveling, Tiger Woods is making his return to golf at the Masters, the NHL playoff picture is becoming more clear, and MLB is cutting their rosters for opening day. So why is it that the most interesting sports topic is still the NFL? With a 28-4 vote in what Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton called "backdoor maneuvering," NFL owners amended the overtime rules for the playoffs.

There have been grumblings about the NFL sudden death overtime since kickoffs were moved from the 35 yard line to the 30 in 1994. Giving teams an extra five yards of field to return the kickoff translated into better returns and better field position. Add that to aerial offenses and the increased accuracy of kickers, and suddenly winning the coin toss was an enormous advantage. The amount of teams winning by field goals on first possession increased rapidly.

The grumblings increased yearly until hitting a crescendo last season in the NFC championship game when Brett Favre and the Vikings could only watch helplessly as the Saints nailed a field goal a few plays after winning the overtime coin toss. The new rule would have given the Vikings a possession to match or defeat the Saints. It possibly could have led to the Super Bowl matchup that the NFL really wanted which was Favre vs. Manning.

The new rule works like this: If team A scores a touchdown on their initial possession the game is over. If Team A scores a field goal, Team B gets a possession on offense. If Team B then scores a touchdown the game is over. If Team B scores a field goal to tie, sudden death overtime rules take effect. There are other stipulations regarding turnovers, but that is the gist. Ironically one of the four teams to vote against an overtime rule change was the Vikings.

So what does this change essentially mean? Basically teams are now obliged to play for a touchdown rather than a field goal. The advantage became so great for teams winning the coin toss, something had to be done. No one likes to see the kicker be the star of the game. This change will force teams to play football similar to the way it would be played during regulation.

Detractors of the rule change posit what is good for the playoffs should be good for the regular season. I'm not sure why the owners decided to only amend playoff overtime games. It seems like a good rule that would work in the regular season. The owners are scheduled to meet to discuss adopting the rule change for the regular season in May.

Some voiced concern that lengthening the game will result in greater injury risk due to fatigue. That could be another reason why the rule was changed only for the playoffs. I really don't think the game will be extended more than a couple of possessions on average. The lengthiest overtime scenario sees the game go to sudden death after two possessions.

Players and coaches seem to be in agreement that you should never let yourself get to overtime. If you can't finish off your opponent in regulation, then you shouldn't complain being disadvantaged through the coin toss. Make no mistake, the NFL didn't necessarily need this rule change. Things were working fine. This rule change is for the fans, and I say kudos to everyone involved in getting it done.

I understand the "if it ain't broke" sentiment, but I hated watching teams lose an overtime game just because they lost the coin toss and gave up two first downs. After spending the day watching a highly competitive game that needs extra time to decide, the last thing I want is a 45 yard field goal end it two minutes later with only one offense taking the field.

I like the rule change because it keeps the competition fair by forcing teams to play for touchdowns. The rule also allows defensive oriented teams a chance to kick off and play defense first. Coaches that decide to take the wind rather than the ball will no longer be punch lines. There is a great number of variables that have to be taken into consideration rather than simply taking the ball every time.

The amazing part of the rule change was how quickly the owners and commissioner Roger Goodell acted. After the season ended, Goodell said they would look into amending the rule. Six weeks later it was cemented. In an age where improvements for football are often speculated but rarely changed, Goodell made sure he got this done quickly.

The official vote took place a day before it was originally scheduled, leaving several head coaches upset they were not able to weigh in. NFL head coaches are notorious for resisting change. Washington Redskins head coach, Mike Shanahan eluded, if the coaches had their way they would still be watching film on 16mm.

All in all, I have heard several ideas on what to do with the NFL overtime, most of which say leave it alone. There are complaints that the new system is too complicated. It seems pretty straight forward to me. There might be a point where some negative issues arise with the change, but I can't predict any.

I believe this rule will make overtime more competitive without adding lots of time to the finish. Coaches might not like it, but coaches work for the owners and the owners need to keep their fans happy. This change will be valuable moments before every overtime coin flip. Fans will have peace of mind that the best team should prevail in overtime, not the one who gets the ball first and has the best kicker. It will be hard to complain about losing in overtime in the new format. Mission accomplished as far as I'm concerned. Now let's see if they can work that quickly on the collective bargaining agreement to avoid a lockout in 2011. With a sport at its absolute height of popularity, that would be a colossal mistake.

Closing Time

As the words of Men At Work, "who can it be now?" run through my head, I ponder the same question for this year's Super Bowl champ. The NFL has increasingly become a quarterbacks league and Super Bowl XLIV features the best from each conference. The New Orleans Saints take on the Indianapolis Colts for a chance at football immortality Sunday, in Miami.

The Super Bowl setting should feel very familiar for most Colts players including QB Peyton Manning. It was three years ago that Manning held a wet Vince Lombardi trophy after beating the Chicago Bears in Miami. Indy's routine this year will be the same including a stay at the same hotel.

Manning won his fourth MVP this season and much of the Super Bowl talk is focused on what another win will do to his all time legacy. More impressive than statistics is how Manning leads his team. He is a coach on the field, and most forget his team is directed by a rookie head coach.

Indy won every game Manning finished, and his second half dissection of the vaunted Jets defense in the AFC championship game was seriously impressive. WR Pierre Garcon is emerging as a future star. Add that to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and surprisingly talented Austin Collie, and you got a stew going, baby.

For as much familiarity and routine the Colts have going into this game, the Saints will be equally unfamiliar with their setting. This is the first time in franchise history they will appear in a Super Bowl with only a few players having any Super Bowl experience.

The Saints are credited with restoring pride to a city struck by disaster, and their success is viewed as a thrill New Orleans natives deserve after hurricane Katrina. Louisiana is clamoring with Saints fever, and most observers without a rooting interest in this game will be cheering for the Saints to pull off the upset.

Both teams had similar seasons taking undefeated records deep in the schedule. Both are led by pass heavy, high scoring offenses. Neither team was noted for their defense, but both are solid and have made big plays throughout the year to help win games. The Colts were dealt a blow when their best defensive player, Dwight Freeney, was hobbled with a serious ankle injury in the AFC championship game. Even if he plays, his effectiveness will suffer severely along with the Colts pass rush.

Saints QB Drew Brees has been unbelievable at times this year, and a Super Bowl appearance is a testament to his brilliance. New Orleans has the ability to score 40 points against anyone, and they lead the league in points per game. The Saints defense made most of their impact forcing opponents to turn the ball over, not in dominating the line of scrimmage. They were able to do both relatively well against the Vikings in the NFC championship game forcing five turnovers, and knocking around QB Brett Favre the whole game. The game plan should be similar in Miami.

The Saints lows have been lower than the Colts, but their highs have been higher. Brees has the ability to make every player eligible to catch passes a weapon. The Saints have found interesting ways to generate points with special teams and defensive scores padding already gaudy point productions.

New Orleans avoids bad voodoo since every analyst seems to be picking Indy. Strange things happen whenever a team becomes a popular favorite in big games. I seem to recall the unbeatable New England Patriots being shocked by the New York Giants a couple of years ago.

With all the hype going to Indy, I was surprised to find how favorably the Saints match up with the Colts on paper. Brees arguably had a better year than the MVP Manning. The real difference between these teams is big game experience. The Colts have it. The Saints don't. Pretty simple.

The rhythm of a Super Bowl normally starts choppy because of nervous energy. I have never been real impressed with Manning's big game production (although he did play well in his first Super Bowl appearance). He has a tendency to start slow before picking up his game. That is the only time the Saints will have an opportunity to take control. If they can put up a nice lead early, they may be able to bury the Colts. If that does not happen, Manning will find a way to win the game. It is almost a certainty the Colts will score more second half points than the Saints.

After originally believing the Colts would easily win, the hype around Manning makes me believe in the Saints. I believe Manning will get number two before he retires because I don't see him tied with brother Eli forever. The Saints will have to shrug off their pressure and turn in a good game as the underdog. If nerves are not a factor, I don't see the Colts D being able to stop Brees.

It feels like the pressure is squarely on Manning's shoulders. If Manning does direct his team to a second Super Bowl win, he deserves to be in the all time talks. Not really Joe Montana level, but certainly Tom Brady level.

It is hard to pick against a team as hot as the Colts, but you're only hot until you lose. If New Orleans doesn't have a 14 point lead at the end of the first quarter, the Colts will win. This may be more heart than head, but I think the Saints will strike early, and hold off the Manning comeback to win a thrilling Super Bowl.

Saints: 34 Colts: 31

Last Call

It has taken a great deal of effort to sit down and post my thoughts about championship Sunday in the NFL after last week's debacle. As late as this is going out, I imagine this won't get read until after the games are over, so I will keep it short.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

No team of recent memory has been more fortunate than the Jets. After getting walked into the playoffs, they played two teams that went a combined 0-5 kicking field goals. Neither the Bengals or Chargers gave a good effort at home, and the defense of the Jets was enough to keep them in games. They have done a pretty good job of ball protection and have taken advantage of their opponents mistakes.

That being said, I can't imagine there is any way that the Colts fall victim to the Jets brand of football. Indy should understand what they are up against unlike the Jets previous two opponents. The most important difference this week is Colts QB Peyton Manning, the consummate professional. Manning has not had the postseason success you would expect for a QB of his caliber, but every team that has been a thorn in his side is watching on TV.

The path to the Super Bowl could not be more perfect for Manning. Doesn't it seem inevitable that he will have two Super Bowl championships? He can't be known for tying his brother in Super Bowl victories. The Colts played a warm up last week when they beat the Baltimore Ravens who could be the twin brother of the Jets.

Once again it will be strength against strength. The Colts passing offense against the Jets blitzing defense. The Jets pressure QBs 60 percent of the snaps but Manning has a QB rating of 118 against the blitz this year. Indy boasts a more consistent defense than San Diego or Cincy. Without a passing attack, I don't see the Jets putting up enough points to keep up with Manning. Jets DB Darrelle Revis will cover Colts WR Reggie Wayne which should be Revis' toughest challenge this postseason.

The outcome shouldn't be taken for granted since a similar argument has been made against the Jets for the past two rounds by nearly everyone. The Jets have shown great resiliency to match their tremendous luck, but their luck has to run out this week. I like the Colts BIG. I think Manning leads at least four TD drives, and the Colts eclipse 30 points.

Colts 31 Jets 13

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

It seems like the best matchups this postseason have been in the NFC, but the games have all turned out to be lopsided. I thought Minnesota vs. Dallas would be a very competitive game, but the Vikings pounded Dallas like veal. Suddenly WR Sidney Rice is on top of the world and RB Adrian Peterson has taken a back seat. Brett Favre has not disappointed this year, and the playoff win has to give him confidence.

The Saints reminded the world why they are the number one seed as they pummelled the Cardinals last week. All purpose back Reggie Bush came up with a great game which occurs about every ten. QB Drew Brees was sharp early, and they put away the Cards by the start of the second quarter. The Saints offense was clicking on all cylinders, but they also faced a team that gave up 45 points the previous week. More impressive was their ability to shut down QB Kurt Warner and the Cardinals high powered offense.

The Saints weren't really tested last week, and they will actually have to play against a real NFL defense. Minnesota should feel very confident after last week's win. They have been able to win several games without Peterson getting his usual yards, and they have the best defensive line in the league.

Two things work against the Vikings though. First, they are on the road. The home (or dome) field advantage Minnesota enjoys is one of the biggest in the NFL. The few times the Vikes looked vulnerable were on the road. The second problem the Vikings have is that I will be rooting for them. They have been my safety team after drafting Peterson, and just like always, I will need them to come through to salvage some joy out of this post season.

New Orleans is not immune to some bad voodoo either. Much like San Diego, they have never been a team that has gotten over their playoff woes. In the age of BB (Before Brees), the Saints couldn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. When I lived in New Orleans, fans would wear monkeys on their backs to try and reverse the jinx of first round losses. Now that Brees has taken over, they have had more success, but still have not made it past the championship game. This would be a monumental win for the Saints and their fans. This is the first year the Saints will host an NFC championship game.

To see Favre against Manning in the Super Bowl would be tremendous. Manning against Brees would be fun, but it just doesn't have the same feel. Favre vs. Manning would be like Magic vs. Bird at the end of their careers. If Peterson can get going, it will give Favre and the rest of the offense a big boost. He's like a power hitter in a slump, and you know he is due for a breakout(for those keeping track, that is an NBA analogy followed by an MLB analogy, both to describe the NFL. Nice.) Eventually a hole will open up for him and he'll take it to the house. If the difference becomes who has the better defense, you have to go with the Vikings.

My heart says Minnesota, my head says New Orleans. Either team can win this game, the real prediction is deciding what kind of game it will be. Turnovers? Sloppy play? More defense than expected? Shootout? All of these factors are involved. Can Brett really make it to the Super Bowl this year? Is it Brees' turn? Enough! I believe the offenses will win out.

Minnesota 30 New Orleans 35

AAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am so sick of being a Chargers fan. I know I said that Chargers fans would be wise to temper expectations, but for some reason I do not ever take my own advice. It is unbelievable the way this team crumbles in the post season when they are the favorite. How many disappointments at home can one team be a part of? Not one player on the team should be proud of their performance against the Jets. I don't buy for a second that the Jets deserve credit more than San Diego is to blame. The Jets didn't play that well, they're not even that good. Not one Charger was ready to play, and they made the Jets look good. They just lost to a rookie quarterback who was hardly asked to throw.

Let's start the blame with Nate Kaeding. Kaeding has consistently been one of the top three kickers in the league during the regular season, but when the playoffs come around, he folds like a napkin. He was 0-3 in field goal attempts including a chip shot from 36 yards away that would have given the Chargers points on their second possession of the game. When I saw that ball miss, I knew the Chargers were in trouble. Kaeding has now lost two games to the Jets, and missed a chance to beat New England, all in San Diego. What is the point of having a kicker that cannot make field goals in the playoffs? In a game where you are facing the best defense in the NFL, you have to capitalize on every scoring opportunity. Kaeding left 9 points on the field. I realize one of the attempts was a 57 yarder, but the kick wasn't even close, and it almost led to a return by Darrelle Revis the other way. If he would have made the two field goals he was supposed to, the Chargers would have won.

Next blame is a combination of the offensive line and RB Ladainian Tomlinson. I don't care how many weapons you have in the passing game, you have to be able to pick up more than one yard on the ground when you run the ball. RB Darren Sproles had a couple of good carries towards the end of the half but never got handed the ball the rest of the game. Tomlinson looked like he was running hard, but couldn't find any room, and lacks the speed to run the ball to the outside. He is over the hill, and this year was his best chance to win a Super Bowl. The lessons of playoff disappointments in the past did not sink in with the veteran leaders, and the entire team came out flat. It seemed like there would never be room to run, and there wasn't. I understand that the best offenses are balanced, but when it is clear that you can't pick up yards on the ground, why do you continue running into the teeth of the defense? I have to think that having the name Tomlinson on the back of your jersey demands a certain number of carries. I hate to see players who have meant as much to the city as Tomlinson cast aside (like the Padres did with Trevor Hoffman), but the Chargers need a RB bad. Real bad. Tomlinson is done.

Next to blame is head coach Norv Turner. I was so disappointed when the Charger's let Marty Schottenheimer go and hired Turner. It didn't seem to be an upgrade at all, but he really grew on me with an unexpected playoff win last year, and the great run they had at the end of this year. But when your team comes out and lays a collective egg, the head coach is the first person you look to blame for not imparting the proper motivation. The game plan was not the issue more than the execution, but the blame begins and ends with the head coach in the NFL. That's just the way it is. After going 14-2, Schottenheimer was fired after an unexpected first round loss. I am not saying that is the right move for Turner, but he should think about that precedent. I haven't read any thoughts on the game, but I guarantee a lot of the good will that Turner built up this year is out the window with this loss. As sad as it is, the best thing Charger's fans can hope for is a bad season next year where they can justify hiring a coach that can actually have his team ready to beat someone other than themselves in the post season. It might not matter as the Chargers could lose WR Vincent Jackson and LB Shawne Merriman. The rest of the team is getting old with the exception of QB Phillip Rivers, and it is clear he cannot win the game on his own.

Let's also not forget to blame the passing game. Rivers threw two interceptions. WR Malcolm Floyd needed to step up since he wouldn't be covered by Revis, but he dropped passes and was a non factor. The Chargers consistently drove and stalled due to penalties. Even though the line did a great job in pass protection and picking up blitzes, they couldn't get any momentum thanks to drops and ridiculous penalties.

Penalties, penalties, penalties. Every time the Chargers had momentum they shot themselves in the foot with a penalty. Holding, false starts, personal fouls, even an unsportsmanlike conduct for kicking a challenge flag when the faintest hope of a comeback was sparked.

Defense. Overall, you can't be too disappointed with the defense, but when the offense cannot perform and you still have a chance to win the game if you come up with a stop, you have to make the play. When you know your opponent is going to run the ball and you can't stop them, you haven't done your job. At the very end of the game on 4th and 1, everyone in the country knows the running back is getting the ball up the middle. At that point it is a matter of desire, and it looked like the defense was ready to go home. The hole that the Jets were able to open on that play was bigger than any one Tomlinson had the entire game. That is desire. Even more disconcerting was the play before when it was 3rd and 6 and they gave up a five yard run. That run enabled the Jets to go for the first down and seal the game. If the D stops them two yards shorter, the Jets punt, and Rivers has a chance for another patented comeback. There is a reason the Jets have the best running attack in the NFL, and it's not because they have the best backs or line. It is because they are one dimensional and can't consistently ask their QB to make plays. They have to live and die with the run, and the Chargers D could not make a play when it mattered in the second half.

I'm so upset that I let myself believe in these guys again. I told myself I would never get so invested that I would be mad when they lost, but I am beside myself right now. My wife is irritated that I am letting the game ruin the day as I am currently in Colorado with the in laws, but what a terrible loss. You could not have picked a better team to play if you were the Chargers. The Jets didn't even belong in the playoffs and the Chargers handed them the game. If this game had been played in the regular season, the San Diego Chokers would have beat them by 20 points. It is games like this that have led me to pick a safety team in the NFC to root for. I just can't trust the Chargers to ever play above their potential. It has been a lifetime of underachieving, disappointment, and anger. I guess the radio personalities are correct when they say San Diego can never produce a winner because the hunger cannot be cultivated living in paradise.

Once again the football season is ruined by an early exit from the playoffs. It would be okay if they played a team that is better than them, but once again the Chargers beat themselves at home. Damn it! Just pathetic. How do you come up with your worst game of the year at home in the post season? Year after year. Year after year. AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would say I know what its like to be a Cowboys fan, but at least they have had success beyond the regular season at some point in their history. An embarrassing Super Bowl loss is all Chargers fans have to hang their hat on.

I am not sure when I will be able to stomach reading the post game interviews or articles, but that team should be ashamed of their performance, again. It is not like you don't have history to learn from. How you let it happen again is beyond belief. I apologize that this post is not very glib, I am writing out of pure anger, and not planning on proof reading.

Addition: I am writing this paragraph a couple of hours after I posted the above. I want to go back and say something about Ladainian Tomlinson. There should be more professionals like him. He has had an amazing career as everyone knows, but more importantly he has carried himself with class and represented the Chargers organization better than anyone in my lifetime. He is an extremely rare example of a classy NFL star running back. All the stats and wins he has piled up as a Charger can never touch the pride and class he carried himself with. He is a true role model and I hope there are several young kids striving to grow up and be like him. As I have cooled off after another devastating loss, I feel like I would be remiss to not say something about Tomlinson after what might have been his last game, at least as a Charger. I realize the expectations I have of the Chargers has been built through the years thanks greatly in part from the effort of Tomlinson. Without him, there would be several years I would be happy if they finished .500 and beat the Raiders. For all the heartache true fans of San Diego sports endure, we have been represented by some of the finest role models in their respective sports. I would defy anyone to show me a sports star who carried himself with more class than Tomlinson or Tony Gwynn. We might not have championships, we might not have many wins, we might not have many postseason appearances, but we have some guys that have done it the right way throughout their career. We have some guys that prove there are still role models in sports. It's just unfortunate that they could not have been rewarded with more on the field successes. I am very proud of Tomlinson's career as a San Diegan, and I wish him the best in the future.

Can I Get You Another Round?

Finally! The wild card round of the playoffs is over and we can focus on the teams that really matter. Like the Chargers and Vikings. Why the Vikings? Because they have All Day, Adrian Peterson. That's why.

The first round of the playoffs had three games that were not very competitive, and one game that will be a classic forever. I knew what I was talking about when I said I would not be surprised by any of the winners, considering I missed three of my four picks. I have done pretty well picking NFL games this year, but last week was not what I expected.

If I had one lock for any game last week, it was New England defending their home field. But Baltimore won the game after the first play from scrimmage and made the Patriots look like I described them in my earlier post, The Fall of Ego (that's the first time I have plugged one of my posts, so don't hold it against me). RB Ray Rice has exceeded expectations, and appears to be the spitting image of Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew.

I never thought I would see Tom Brady get beat at home in the playoffs, but I have been waiting a long time for it to happen. I was surprised that I wasn't more excited, but I realized the Chargers might have to play the Ravens in the AFC championship. The Bolts can beat Indianapolis in their sleep but can't figure out Baltimore.

The Jets beat the Bengals on the road, and looked great doing so. If I had any guts I would have picked that game correctly, but I went against my better judgment and took the home team. I guess I forgot that you should never bet on the Bengals. But am I right in thinking that you should never bet on the Jets either?

Just making the playoffs was good enough for Cincy and they decided not to show up for the game. Who really knows how good the Jets are since they keep playing teams that are handing them the win. You wouldn't think it would happen in the playoffs, and it looks really bad for the legacy of QB Carson Palmer.

The Cowboys and Tony Romo finally got over the playoff hump and they have cemented themselves as the sexy pick for the NFC championship. Head coach Wade Phillips is safe for another year, and if I have any Dallas fans reading this, I would like to offer some insight on Phillips. He might not be the tough disciplinarian many want, and it might have taken him a few years to make his mark, but the strength of the Cowboys is their defense which he directs. I can tell you, I loved Phillips when he was the defensive coordinator for the Chargers. He put together the best San Diego defense I ever watched play. You would be wise to give him some credit for the job he did this year, regardless of what happens in Minnesota.

It was back to back poor performances for the Eagles, which is the only thing I did see coming last week. As much as I could not believe that I was taking the Cowboys to win a playoff game, I had less faith in the Eagles to rebound from the poor performance against Dallas the week prior. Eagles fans are ready to get rid of Donovan McNabb, which is Philly for you. A fresh start somewhere else might be a good idea, though. Like say...Minnesota?

Then there was the best wild card game of the decade (being just over a week old) with Cardinals QB Kurt Warner growing his illustrious legendary status. He does not lose many playoff games. Everyone in the world was picking the Packers. Green Bay did have a chance to win, but it would have been no fault of Warner's who put up one of the best statistical games ever in the postseason. He already owns most of the records in Super Bowl games.

It looked like a blowout early, but QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers stormed back and had a chance to win. Rodgers lived up to the hype he received before the game. What happened to the Packers defense? Warner, I guess.

On a night where the record for most points scored in a playoff game was broken, it was a defensive play that finally ended the game, albeit in controversy. In the end, 38 year old Warner added to his Hall of Fame resume by throwing more touchdowns (5) than incomplete passes (4), and his team continues to defend their NFC championship crown from last year.

With the Cardinals...Wow. Same guy who went to the Super Bowl with St. Louis. Twice. Can anyone tell me what any other coach or player has done since? How about the team? Someone please tell me Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. I can win that argument in 15 seconds. I wish the Vikings could trade Brett Favre for Warner right now. And I'm a Brett Favre fan.

Sorry for the rant.

I'll end it by saying, I like Kurt Warner.

Continuing...

This week should be even more interesting now that the pretenders are out of the picture. Let's take a look at the matchups.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

Arizona comes to New Orleans after an emotional win at home and a spectacular offensive output. Don't expect the game this week against the Saints to be much different. The Saints were the leagues most dominate team in the first half of the season, especially on offense. But they faltered down the stretch leaving many to doubt their legitimacy as a contender. Saints QB Drew Brees had another fantastic year leading his team to the number one seed in the NFC, but their spotty play late in the season, added to their long layoff, doesn't bode well for who dat nation.

Brees is still an infant when it comes to the playoffs, just 3-3 lifetime. The Cards might get WR Anquan Boldin back for this game which would improve an offense that just posted 51 points against what was supposed to be a good Packers defense.

I love Brees and the Saints offense, but I'm not sure the layoff was a good thing for New Orleans. They are such a rhythmic team, it's hard to see how time off could help that.

I think Arizona will ride the momentum of their first round victory and beat the Saints in a close one. The Cardinals defense will have to hold New Orleans to 34. In order for the Saints to win they will have to revert to their mid season form. Vegas has the over/under at 57 for this game. I would bet the house on the over. I can't wait to see Brees and Warner go at it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens put together their best game of the season last week, beating the Patriots convincingly in New England. Now they must go on the road and face Peyton Manning and the top seeded Colts. Indy chose to rest their star players after they secured the top seed in the AFC, and have not played a full game with their starters in several weeks. Many are concerned that the layoff will work against the momentum the Colts built throughout the year.

To me, it was a smart move with a team as old as the Colts. They have veteran players throughout their lineup which makes me think, not only do they need rest, they will be professional enough to be ready to play after the layoff.

Manning does not have the best track record in the playoffs, but it would take an unbelievable achievement for the Ravens to knock off New England and Indianapolis on the road in consecutive weeks.

Turnovers and running the ball were the keys to victory for Baltimore, last week. I think they will have a hard time getting turnovers against Manning, and they surely won't replicate the success they had running the ball. For the Ravens to have a chance, they are probably going to need QB Joe Flacco to step up and play well. Something they didn't need against the Patriots.

I think the well rested, veteran Colts will win this game in a nail biter. I like Manning to cement the win late in the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Once again, Dallas is involved in what most are projecting to be the best matchup of the weekend. Now that they have won in December and the playoffs, the Cowboys faithful are looking for the Super Bowl title.

The main difference this week is they have to do it on the road. Dallas had a great win in December against the Saints in New Orleans. All the other Cowboys wins since have been at home. The strength of the team has been defense, but they have been balanced on offense as well. It doesn't hurt that Romo is not dating a pop star and subsequently playing the best football of his career.

Minnesota comes in well rested with the ultimate veteran Brett Favre. Many teams have found a way to contain the rushing attack of the Vikings by focusing on RB Adrian Peterson every play. Peterson's true greatness is apparent with the year that Favre had. Without the run game consuming so much attention, do you really think Favre would have had his best touchdown to interception ratio? Deciding how to defend the run will be a challenge for Dallas' defense.

The other challenge will be the superb defensive line of the Vikings. With breakdowns in the secondary, the Vikings defensive line kept their defense solid, led by sack machine Jared Allen. The Cowboys have not faced a D line this good all year. The good news for Dallas is that Romo gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league, and they run a lot of three step drops which should combat the rush of Minnesota.

I think Peterson needs to get going early by breaking a big run and taking some pressure off of Favre. Peterson hasn't eclipsed the 100 yard mark in his last seven games and it seems like he's due for a breakout. Still, the Cowboys' defense is not an easy place to start.

Another tough one to call, but I think Minnesota wins at home. Expectations should be taken in baby steps for Cowboys fans, and Minnesota plays awfully well at home. The team that gets the most turnovers will win this one.

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

San Diego has been in this position several times. Playing at home in a game they are supposed to win. They seem to have a tougher time as the favorite rather than playing as an underdog.

Over the last 11 weeks of the season the Chargers have been the most consistent team in the NFL, and the leagues best offense. They boast four receivers and tight ends that are 6'4" or taller. QB Phillip Rivers deserved a better look as the league's MVP, and WR Vincent Jackson was robbed to not make the AFC Pro Bowl roster.

The Jets come into San Diego as the Cinderella of the postseason after defying the odds to even make the playoffs. Their good fortune continued when they faced a Bengals team twice in successive weeks that just rolled over and let them have their way. The term "shut down corner" is once again en vogue thanks to DB Darrelle Revis who has shut down every top receiver he lined up against this year. The Jets will look to assert their run game which is rated tops in the NFL, and play great defense, also first in the league.

It is a battle of offense against defense, but the Chargers are more experienced, more talented, and playing at home. They are also healthier than they have been all season. Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates should provide matchup nightmares for the Jets defense, and the heavy blitzing schemes of Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be countered with screen passes to Darren Sproles. Sooners fans know what Sproles can do with the ball in his hands. Should the game be close in the fourth quarter, Rivers is probably the best closer in the league, with all due respect to Manning.

In the end, I like my Chargers at home. If they protect the ball and hold the Jets to field goals, this one could be over in the third quarter.

Playoffs?!?

Wipe the slate clean, it's tournament time in the NFL and the action should be fantastic. Looking at the first round games I don't see any possible upsets. What I mean by that is no matter who wins, it shouldn't be considered an upset. After the first round, every remaining team has a great chance to make the Super Bowl.

I am very excited for the playoffs, and it doesn't hurt that the Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL. Regardless of my biases, the games look to be very entertaining, even for the fans whose team missed the playoffs. In one of the strangest twists the NFL has ever seen, three of four first round games are rematches from the previous week. Baltimore/New England is the only game that is not a rematch of week 17. All three games had lopsided outcomes which may or may not mean anything. We'll find out this weekend.

The only problem I have with the playoffs this year is the way the Jets were able to sneak in. In a year where half the AFC was competing for the last wild card spot the final week, the Jets benefited from extremely favorable scheduling and management decisions by teams that had their playoff spot locked up, effectively eliminating competitive action. I didn't see it coming because I assumed Indianapolis would defend their perfect season, but they decided to rest their starters to the benefit of the Jets. You can bet there are some fans in New England that would agree with that decision.

It is an issue that deserves attention from the NFL to keep the spirit of competition alive late in the season, although I doubt there are any real solutions available. You can't expect teams to play all their starters to the bitter end when the game effectively means nothing. Right now, the negatives out weigh the positives.

Round 1

New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets and Bengals played last week with NY dominating Cincy to the tune of 37-0. The game was played in the Meadowlands, in frigid weather, after Cincy had locked up their playoff spot. Still, the Jets defense was pretty convincing holding the Bengals to one first down and zero yards passing. Don't let the points fool you, the Jets won't put up 37 again, but they might benefit from great scheduling, once again, playing the mourning Bengals on the heels of a blowout.

The Jets and Bengals might be the teams that pose the weakest threat to win the AFC. Cincy played fairly inspired football in San Diego the week after Chris Henry died, but have since looked like a team waiting for the playoffs to start. They will have to find their offensive identity against the league's best defense, after coasting the last month of the season. I believe it will be very important for Cincinnati to score in the first quarter. They will also have to play better defense than they have recently.

I can't ignore what the Jets were able to do at home against Cincy, but I still have trouble believing they can put up enough points to win on the road. This is an extremely difficult game to pick. When right, Cincy is better, but if their play over the last month is an indicator as to how they will play this weekend, you can give it to the Jets. Cincy's offense will have RB Cedric Benson back along with WR Chad Ochocinco. I see overtime in this one. The home team takes it by a field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

This is the best game of the first round and features two teams that are quite familiar with each other. Dallas has eliminated the chatter that they can't win in December, and are now being called the favorite in the NFC by some analysts. This is a typical reaction to Dallas winning a couple of games. Let's not forget that the Boys haven't won a playoff game since 1996, and QB Tony Romo has yet to win one.

That being said, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice this year. Much like the Jets, Dallas dominated Philly last week and will have the chance to make it two weeks in a row. Unlike the Jets, Dallas gets to do it at home. The win also saw the Cowboys defense post its second straight shutout. Head coach Wade Phillips seems to have bought himself another year in Dallas (to the dismay of many Cowboys fans), but really needs a playoff win to cement this. Don't forget, it was an embarrassing loss to Philly in the final game last year that kept Dallas out of the playoffs.

Philadelphia comes in wounded, but before last week's loss they had won six games in a row. Philly gets their third crack at Dallas this year which makes them dangerous, but they bring in a makeshift offensive line without their starting center. The Eagles played most of the year with more fire power than Gilbert Arenas, and if they can find that again they are very capable of winning this game. Head coach Andy Reid always seems to have his team ready in the playoffs. Starting QB Donovan Mcnabb has nine career playoff wins.

Is this the game that gets the monkey off the backs of Romo and the Cowboys? They overcame the doubters for their stretch run in December, but the playoffs are a different animal. The biggest question might be how much can you change in six days if you are the Eagles? Romo and the Boys cannot afford to lose this game, and lucky for them they will be at home. Another toss up goes to the home team.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

So the good news is the Ravens finished out the season nicely and landed a wild card position in the playoffs. The bad news is they are playing the Patriots in Foxborough. Even though I am not wild about the Pats this season, and they just lost WR Wes Welker to injury, New England doesn't lose games at home. Especially in the playoffs.

The Pats are 5-0 all time against the Ravens. They have won 11 straight playoff games at home, and Tom Brady is 14-3 as a playoff starter. Pretty sobering if you are a Ravens fan.

I like the Ravens as a team, but this is not the same team that took a wild card seed and won the Super Bowl. The Ravens have shifted from all defense to mostly offense. The Pats should move the chains and put up points. The Ravens will rely on their run attack, which has been terrific this year, to out score the Pats. The emergence of RB Ray Rice has helped veteran RB Willis McGahee stay fresh and work more as a goal line back. QB Joe Flacco put together a solid sophomore campaign, and the Ravens will have future hall of fame safety Ed Reed back from injury in a limited capacity.

Once the playoffs start, the Patriots will still intimidate their opponents with their postseason pedigree. Tom Brady under center is enough to give the Pats confidence they can win the Super Bowl. Without Welker and a mediocre defense, there is almost no way this can happen, but I expect them to beat the Ravens soundly at home. The true test will come when they have to play outside Foxborough the following week.

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals


In what might possibly be QB Kurt Warner's final game, the Packers and Cardinals rematch in Arizona after Green Bay won 33-7, last week. The teams went in two different directions with the Pack playing as if they needed to maintain momentum, and the Cards deciding to not show any schemes and rest veteran players. Aaron Rodgers will make his postseason debut after a stellar second season as the Packers starting QB.

The Cards come into this game as a team that can play bad one week only to bounce back and look like the NFC champs from last year. WR Anquan Boldin looks like he may miss the game with an ankle injury which will spell big trouble for the Cards. With Pro Bowl DB Charles Woodson covering WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona will miss Boldin and his ability to make plays opposite Fitz. Still, this is a Cardinal team that has been here before, and with Warner under center in the playoffs, good things happen. He is 8-3 in the postseason.

The Packers enter this matchup as the NFC's best defensive team and winners in seven of their last eight games. Rodgers deserves the extensive praise he receives, and has eclipsed 4,000 yards passing both years as a starter. He is the only player in NFL history to achieve that feat. RB Ryan Grant had a solid year running for the Pack, and the offensive line troubles that plagued Green Bay early in the season were amended.

It's hard to predict how either team will play in this game. I believe the Packers to be a better team, but they are relatively inexperienced, and they are playing on the road. It will be an uphill battle for Arizona who actually played better on the road than at home this year. A complete reversal from last year. In the end, I see Green Bay as the more complete team, and I expect the Packers to advance.