The Usual Suspects: Eastern Conference

The NBA conference finals begin today with the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat followed by the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday.

The second round of the NBA playoffs did not offer the intrigue that the first round provided.  It passed in a blur leaving few memorable moments with the exception of the Thunder/Clippers series.  And now that the second round is history, who do we have left?  The four teams everyone expected before the season began.  I don't think it's bad to have the top seeds advance to the conference finals, but it does feel anticlimactic after the all the near shake ups in the first round.  Still, both matchups are tasty.

Eastern Conference.

Since LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined the Heat, the Pacers have been part of their story.  It has been an unlikely pairing as the Heat's main threat and rival was originally the Boston Celtics.  A team with their own Big Three and a championship.

James and the Heat defeated the Celtics en route to the NBA Finals their fist season together but lost in the finals to the Dallas Mavericks.  After the loss, the scrutiny of James and the Heat was relentless.  They had to win a championship in 2012.

The Heat entered the second round of the 2012 playoffs against the Pacers.  At the time the Pacers were considered a scrappy group of overachievers.  They weren't supposed to keep up with the Heat much less challenge them in the series.  The Pacers took a 2-1 series lead with game four set to take place in Indiana.  There was momentary panic in Miami before they clawed back and won the series.  The Heat went on to win the first championship with their Big Three.

The 2013 conference finals was the coming out party for the Pacers.  They battled the Heat to the brink of elimination and appeared to be the better team for most of the series.  The Heat won in seven games and went on to win another championship.  The 2014 Eastern Conference Finals gives the Pacers their third act in the Miami Heat's journey for history.

After the loss in last year's conference finals, the Pacers vocalized their desire for a rematch.  They believed they would have won the series if game seven was played in Indiana.  They began this season with the goal to win home court advantage and set up another showdown with the Heat.  Their quest to secure home court advantage was almost derailed by erratic play the last six weeks of the regular season.  Poor chemistry and locker room issues nearly cost them in the opening round series against the Atlanta Hawks.  After being lauded the majority of the season, the Pacers received their first real dose of scrutiny and it nearly tore them apart.

It doesn't matter now.  The Pacers achieved every goal they set to this point in the season.  They wanted the conference finals rematch with the Heat, they wanted home court advantage, they got both.

Roy Hibbert is the Pacers' most important player against the Heat and until a week ago he was playing his worst basketball as a pro.  Hibbert seemed to rediscover his game last series, and as his production returned, so did the confidence of the Pacers.  The size deficient Heat has no answer for Hibbert.  His all-star selection this season was mostly due to his dominanace in the 2013 conference finals.  It will be imperative that he play well for the Pacers to have a chance to win the series. (What the hell is this picture?)

The Pacers distaste for the Heat is well chronicled and I expect to see their best basketball of the playoffs.  Their earlier struggles reveal some vulnerability that the Heat will try to exploit.  It will be important for both teams in this series to seize momentum immediately.

The Heat do not match up well with the Pacers, but James creates his own matchup problems.  The Paul George/James matchup will be fun to watch as George is one of the few players athletic and long enough to disrupt James' offense.  The Heat are the much more cohesive unit offensively and for once are probably dealing with less distractions than their opponent.  I believe the Pacers will play better than most think they will, but I don't think it will be enough.

The Heat could win the Eastern Conference for a fourth straight season.  The last team to do that was the Celtics in the mid 1980s.  They are also two series away from a third straight NBA championship.  When James came to Miami he talked about making history with the Heat and was mocked for it (not three...).  A three-peat would justify many of the inflammatory declarations so many were quick to ridicule.  The importance of the moment will not be lost on anyone in the Heat locker room, especially not James.

I do expect home court to help the Pacers and the Heat will have to play better basketball to win the series.  Game one will be especially important to set a tone.  If Miami goes into Indiana and has success, the Pacers could get buried.  However, if the Pacers take care of business and establish the paint, their confidence will be fully restored after a rough couple months.  When it's all said and done, the best player in the series plays for the Heat.  That's why the Heat will win.