Monday, May 5, 2014

Much Ado About Nothing

What a first round of the NBA playoffs! Five of eight series went all seven games.  Eight overtime games, buzzer beaters, (Donald Sterling), serious drama, it's been great.  Indiana, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Brooklyn, and Los Angeles were all close to elimination.

The result of five dramatic game sevens was zero upsets.  The favorites won every series and as thrilling as the first round was, there was really nothing thrilling about who advanced.

I was happy to see the Clippers and Thunder advance providing a titillating second round matchup.  Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin.  Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul.  Serge Ibaka and Deandre Jordan.  Both teams are high scoring, star studded, and despise each other.  What's not to like?  Durant should collect his MVP trophy during the series which could add even more fuel to the fire.

As for the rest of the drama, there was none.

Indiana looked most likely to get upset in the first round.  They have played awful for over a month.  An eight seed with a losing record forced them into two elimination games.  Some hypothesized locker room turmoil is to blame for Indiana's baffling descent.  Whatever the case, they found a way to pull it together and move on.

Brooklyn also faced two elimination games against Toronto in their first round series.  The Raptors had a chance to win the series in the closing seconds of game seven but came up one point short.  It would have been a sweet dose of karma for the Nets who tanked their last game of the regular season to avoid the Bulls as a first round opponent.  They wanted Toronto and they got everything they could handle.  Nevertheless, they move on.

San Antonio didn't play their best basketball until game seven against the Dallas Mavericks.  As incredible as the Greg Popovich era has been, first round struggles in the playoffs aren't uncommon.  They were victims of a miracle shot by Vince Carter to lose game three, but it never felt like the series was out of their control.

So after all the excitement, all of the heavy favorites move on.  Will the second round be as good as the first?  I believe it will be.


Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards


Anyone who watched the Pacers the last month can't feel great about their chances.  The Wizards backcourt is youthful but budding and they have a veteran presence in the paint with Marcin Gortat and Nene.  Roy Hibbert struggled terribly against Atlanta and now faces Nene who just destroyed Joakim Noah (while Noah was accepting his Defensive Player of the Year award).

Paul George is the best player in the series and the Pacers enjoy a much deeper bench, but the Wizards are definitely playing better as a unit.  It will take an enormous individual effort by George to advance the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals, a place nearly everyone assumed they would be when the season started. 

Wizards in 6


Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets

The Heat have rested over a week awaiting the Nets.  The Nets have one day to rest before game 1.  Advantage Miami.  Some teams lose rhythm after a long lay off between series but that shouldn't be a problem for the veteran Heat.

As for the veteran Nets, I would expect their first round series to take its toll.  Adrenalin will help in the first game, but expect Miami to be much more energetic the remainder of the series.   The Heat need Dwyane Wade to emerge this series and be a serious contributor to win another championship.

The Nets won all four games against the Heat during the regular season but Miami plays at a different speed in the playoffs.  Without Brook Lopez, the Nets will have to play out of their mind to get the upset.

Heat in 6


San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trailblazers

San Antonio was the popular pick to win the NBA championship entering the playoffs.  They finished with the best regular season record and looked to be firing on all cylinders.  Portland was probably overlooked as a true contender because their defensive efficiency ranks at the bottom of the NBA.


Neither team followed script for their first round matchup. San Antonio looked sluggish against Dallas and were forced to play way more minutes than they would have liked.  Portland played a thrilling series against Houston and looked unstoppable offensively.

The Blazers are younger and more rested.  Damian Lillard and Lemarcus Aldridge will make life miserable for San Antonio defenders in what should be another high scoring series for Portland.  Young legs are good, but there's no substitute for experience. The Spurs are a better team with a better coach.  

Spurs in 7


Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers

There's no relief for either team after an emotional first round series.  Both teams were pushed to the brink of elimination and are stronger for overcoming adversity.  They both boast multiple stars and potent offenses.  This might be the most even matchup in the second round.  I wonder who will get ejected?  My guess is there will be at least two.

As far as analysis, the Thunder have home court and Kevin Durant.  The Clippers do not.  I could break down the Clippers superior bench and interior presence.  I could talk about the Thunder's unreliable defense, but all things being equal, Durant is far and away the best player in the series.

Thunder in 7

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis! It appears the Clippers are up for the fight after game 1 is in the books. I believe round 1 shows how balanced the NBA is at this point in time. So many good players, so many good organizations. Not like previous years where there were 1 or 2 dominant teams that you knew would end up in the finals. Good stuff!!

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