The Usual Suspects: Western Conference

It's high noon on a dusty, humid south Texas day.  A grizzled gunslinger squints his eye to carefully consider his latest challenger.  Across the sun scorched landscape stands a confident killer loaded with firepower.  He is not scared of the gunslinger.  He has bested him before.  The gunslinger knows the killer is here to finish the job and yet he waits with the confident stoicism only a fighter with a trail of dead can possess. 

Okay, you get the point.  The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder face off in the Western Conference Finals in what has become a classic rivalry between talent and experience.  The veteran, multi-champion Spurs have shared Western Conference dominance with the Los Angeles Lakers for the last 17 years.  Now that the Lakers are rebuilding (don't tell Kobe), the Thunder have taken their place.  A rematch of the 2012 Western Conference Finals begins tonight.

The Spurs don't get the credit they deserve, but everyone acknowledges they don't get the credit they deserve.  Isn't that credit enough?  I think so.  I have compared them to basketball's version of vegetables.  We know they are good for us, but they aren't much fun to consume.  Fundamental basketball?  Come on.  We want dunks and flashy passes and 30 foot three pointers.  You know who does that?  The Oklahoma City Thunder.  You know who doesn't care?  The Spurs.

It was believed the Spurs Big Three were old enough to be buried two years ago.  We've waited for Duncan and Manu Ginobli's health to force them to retire.  We've wondered when Tony Parker would slow down after years of playing with reckless abandon.  We believed the Spurs would crumble and the Thunder would sweep away the pieces of a former dynasty.  I'm not sure any of that is true.  Remember when the Spurs surrounded their stars with young talent from all over the globe?  That talent has grown around the established core and understands what it takes to become a champion.  The Spurs system finds the right players, they have the right coach and a culture that is ripe for continual dominance.  The Spurs aren't going anywhere.

The Spurs are impervious to 98 percent of their threats.  If they were a pilot from Top Gun they would be Iceman; technically perfect, no mistakes.  They are only vulnerable to a Maverick type talent that can transcend the restrictions of technical perfection.  Luckily, the Thunder have Maverick talent (Am I throwing too many analogies around? Probably).  There is no system to stop a seven footer who scores thirty with his eyes closed and a sidekick that is athletically superior to anyone the Spurs have on the roster.

The future is now for the Thunder.  Two years ago they beat the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals but fell short to the Heat for a championship.  Last season they lost Russell Westbrook to injury in the playoffs.  This season many fans felt the Thunder would fulfill their championship destiny.  They won all four games against the Spurs this season, survived the rival Memphis Grizzlies (with a little help from Steven Adams iron chin), were galvanized by Kevin Durant's MVP speech and used a miracle comeback against the hated Los Angeles Clippers in game five to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

The future is now for the Thunder, but their run of good luck ended with an injury to Serge Ibaka that will sideline him for the rest of the playoffs (assuming the Thunder trainers are being truthful about the severity).

Ibaka has been a critical piece to the success of the Thunder.  As a knock down jump shooter, he provides spacing for Durant and Westbrook to attack the paint, but his critical contributions come defensively.  He is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA and is versatile enough to cover a variety of players.  The Thunder aren't a defensive team, so losing arguably their best defender will be tough to overcome.  Fortunately, Nick Collison is playing great basketball and Adams has emerged as a real post presence.  The Thunder have the firepower to cover up Ibaka's scoring and the depth to pull together as a defensive unit.

The loss of Ibaka is bad, but what can't happen is to let it become an excuse.  As long as the Thunder have a healthy Durant and Westbrook, there are no excuses.  Analysts are going to bury the Thunder's chances and fans are going to panic, but losing Ibaka shouldn't be a game changer.  It will be important for Scott Brooks to find effective combinations to fill Ibaka's minutes.  Strange as it sounds, if Brooks can convince the rest of the team to double their efforts defensively, Ibaka's absence might innervate the Thunder's collective defense.

If the series came down to coaching, you can book the Spurs in the NBA Finals.  While coaching is more important in the playoffs, the NBA is still a players league and the best two players wear blue.  Westbrook has dominated his matchups against Tony Parker and he is one of the few players that can limit Parker's penetration.  Ball security and shot selection will be paramount (as it always is) for the Thunder.  They can't turn the ball over and expect the Spurs to return the favor.  Nor can they leave wide open three point shooters. 

The Spurs have a variety of role players that can drain threes including Patty Mills who has added a very dangerous element to San Antonio's offense.  Tim Duncan needs to exploit Ibaka's absence and have a big series for the Spurs.  It will be up to Kawhi Leonard to slow Durant and up to Popovich to slow Westbrook since the Spurs have no individual matchup that is favorable against him. 

We know what to expect from the Spurs.  We don't know what to expect from the Thunder.  Should each team play their absolute best, the Thunder's best is better than the Spurs.  I got the Thunder in seven.  Whatever the case, it's sure to be a thrilling chapter to what is becoming one of the best rivalries in the NBA.


Coming soon: Why a Lebron/Durant Finals rematch is the best case scenario for the future of the NBA.