Next Stop, Super Bowl XLV

Sharpen your spurs, shine your belt buckles and saddle your horses, it's almost Super Bowl time in Dallas!  While it's unknown which of the remaining four teams will represent their conference at Super Bowl XLV, it's a certainty that the only Cowboys there will be spectators.  After spending most of the off season loudly proclaiming their intentions to represent the NFC in front of their home crowd, Dallas failed to make the playoffs and once again became punch lines in the process.  I'm sure Jerry Jones takes solace knowing his stadium will be the most profitable Super Bowl venue in NFL history.  On to the teams that matter.


New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jets shocked the NFL last weekend when they beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxborough.  You have to give the Jets credit in executing a perfect game plan.  Offensively, they ran the ball effectively and got Mark Sanchez in rhythm.  Santonio Holmes made another post-season circus catch and the Jets played with confidence throughout the game.

The real story was the Jets defense that confused Brady and forced him to hold the ball and make awkward decisions.  Brady spent as much time on the turf as he did upright.  The Jets backed up their trash talk and once again find themselves visiting an elite AFC team.  To go through Indianapolis, New England, and Pittsburgh would be one of the greatest stretches in playoff history.

The Steelers were able to overcome first half turnovers to beat the Baltimore Ravens in an uncharacteristically sloppy game for both sides.  Lots of points were scored with nearly all of them resulting from turnovers.  After a 14 point first half lead, Joe Flacco and the Ravens one upped Pittsburgh's give aways and turned the ball over three times.  Give the Steelers credit for coming back and being able to turn turnovers into touchdowns, but it felt like Baltimore handed them the game.  It will take a much better performance this week to beat the Jets.

Surprisingly, the Jets have decided to sideline their usual pre-game trash talk opting to complement the Steelers instead.  Watching the Jets be gracious and unusually careful with what they say to the media is like listening to Eminem sing country music.  It just isn't right.  The Steelers have followed suit with gushing complements for the Jets that borders on embarrassing.  It's one thing to respect your opponent, but these two are kissing each others asses, and there's really no other way to say it.

I'm surprised the Jets are willing to change the formula after getting this far by working themselves and their opponents into a frenzy before they play.  How will the Jets respond if there's no hate?  What could they possibly use as motivation?  A trip to the Super Bowl?  That's unlikely to do anything but tighten up their second year quarterback.  They certainly won't be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh like they did in Indianapolis or New England meaning Sanchez will have to outplay Ben Roethlisberger.  Is it possible the Jets are happy with what they have done to get to this point and are softening up?  I think they might be.  If the Steelers didn't look so shaky last week, I would call this game a no-brainer in favor of Pittsburgh.

These Steelers are no stranger to the Super Bowl journey while it is uncharted territory for the Jets.  You have to like what New York has been able to do in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh plays the brand of football that can nullify many of the advantages the Jets have enjoyed.  I just can't see Sanchez making enough plays to win. Roethlisberger (like it or not) has become one of the most clutch, big game quarterbacks in the NFL.  While Brady and Peyton Manning play out the end of their careers, the top dog on the quarterback food chain is Big Ben.  I think the Super Bowl would be more interesting with the Jets in it, I just don't see them pulling it off.  I like the Steelers at home.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Sensational.  Unbelievable.  Incredible.  All words used to describe Aaron Rodgers against the Falcons.  Rodgers performance was unlike any we've seen this year with the exception of Michael Vick's Monday Night game.  He waited patiently three years to get his chance, and he didn't disappoint once he got it. Even though Rodgers is 2-1 in his playoff career, he is 3 for 3 in excellent playoff performances.  When is the last time you have seen a punter sit the bench an entire game in the NFL?

Defensively, Green Bay frustrated the Falcons who couldn't keep up with the Packers scoreboard onslaught.  Green Bay had the game sealed after they ended the first half with a defensive touchdown.  In all, Atlanta certainly was not an elite defense, but Rodgers was 31-36 passing for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The guy can play.

The Bears had quite a favorable matchup against the lowly Seattle Seahawks at home.  Despite the weak opponent, the Bears played tremendous and Jay Cutler showed some of the brilliance people refer to when explaining why he makes so many careless passes.  Chicago could not control who they played and they dominated on both sides of the ball until the fourth quarter.  They have arguably the best defense of the remaining playoff teams.

Green Bay and Chicago is the oldest NFL rivalry and they will be meeting each other for only the second time in playoff history.  The two fan bases hate each other and the players are well aware of this rivalry.  During the regular season they split a two game series with close outcomes in each.  The Packers beat the Bears in the last week of the season to earn a trip to the playoffs.  Now the two square off for the third time this season in the ultimate tie breaker.

I picked the Packers (like many others) to win the Super Bowl before the season started.  They have lost some great personnel to injuries, but since they've made it this far I can't pick against them.  I do have some concerns.  For starters, everyone you hear is picking Green Bay to win.  Whenever this occurs in the playoffs it seems like the opposite happens.  We only have to look back at New England last week for proof.  Actually, it was that logic that lead me to favor New Orleans last year in the Super Bowl.

Secondly, Rodgers is getting more attention than any other player even though Chicago's defense kept him under control both times they faced him.  Chicago is a prideful defense, and all the Rodgers talk will build an enormous chip on their shoulders.

Finally, playing in Chicago on a bad surface in crappy weather will affect both teams.  I really don't think Rodgers will be able to escape pressure like he did last week in a dome.  Chicago will also send a much better pass rush than Atlanta.  It's the Bears defense that has them in position to go to the Super Bowl, and last I checked they still have Julius Peppers.

That being said, if we are looking at quarterbacks, I trust Rodgers a heck of a lot more than I trust Cutler.  At some point in the next two games, Chicago will be eliminated in large part by turnovers from Cutler.  The question is will it come against Green Bay or will it come in the Super Bowl.  The Packers have done a great job against the two quarterbacks they faced in the playoffs, and held Cutler to three points in week 16.

Cutler probably won't be the focal point of Chicago's offense to start the game.  Matt Forte and the Bears ran the ball more than any other NFL team in the last half of the season and will look to establish a ground attack early.  If Forte is able to loosen up the Packers pass coverage, Cutler will look for his tight end Greg Olsen who was able to hit big plays against the Seahawks.


I have to give the coaching edge to Green Bay since there is the possibility of offensive coordinator Mike Martz calling something asinine like he did last week when he called a half back pass with a 28-3 lead in the fourth quarter.  The pass was intercepted (as it should be when you call something so stupid) and resulted in a Seahawks touchdown.

The Bears do have a special weapon that no other team in the NFL enjoys in Devin Hester.  When you talk about the Bears and their ability to win, you always have to factor points from special teams.  Hester is the best punt returner in NFL history and the more he gets his hands on the ball the better for Chicago.

When it's all said and done, I expect to see Green Bay against Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl.  If the league is truly about quarterbacks, it is the matchup that makes the most sense.  It would solidify Rodgers' place as an elite player and further add to Roethlisberger's impressive resume.  No Manning or Brady, but maybe something just as good.