Dumb Luck

Aren't students from Stanford supposed to be smart?  Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck had an unbelievable season that saw his draft stock elevate to the top NFL prospect by an enormous margin.  He finished second in the Heisman voting, won 12 games including a BCS victory, and capped the season with a four touchdown performance in the Orange Bowl that had everyone gushing over his professional potential.  There was no doubt Luck would have been the first pick in the draft had he declared himself eligible, but he shocked the football world by electing to return to Stanford for another season forgoing millions of dollars. 

Luck is every bit of a hot commodity to the NFL as his coach Jim Harbaugh whose name is in the running for every vacant job (and some full in the case of the Miami Dolphins) in the country.  Luck is only a redshirt sophomore so he technically has two years of eligibility left, but as the certain number one pick there would seem to be no reason to return to school.  Every player that plays major college football does so with the hope of playing in the NFL.  You just don't see players turning down that type of opportunity. 

Sam Bradford decided to come back to Norman after his sophomore season when he was the projected number one pick and was injured in his first game of the season.  He would later have surgery and basically missed the entire season.  Bradford was lucky his draft status was not affected and he was still able to sign a huge contract, but wouldn't his story serve as a cautionary tale to Luck?

Luck sites his desire to achieve his architectural design degree as the main factor in his return.  Call me crazy, but I think college will be around next year when he would be able to go back with $40 million in the bank.  He clearly learned nothing from Bradford who could have seriously jeopardized his career with the injury he sustained.  On second thought, maybe he did.  Luck apparently consulted with Bradford who advised him to return to school if that was the direction he was leaning.  I am obviously a huge Bradford fan, but that advise seems irresponsible.  If Luck has the same luck as Bradford, there is no telling how he will respond to surgery and rehab.

Risk of injury aside, there are several other concerns for Luck to consider.  What will the loss of Harbaugh do to the Cardinal?  Stanford had a dream season by their standards which will be very difficult to repeat, especially with a new coaching staff.  Is Luck's decision an effort to persuade the coach to stay in Palo Alto for another year?  If so, that's a very risky gamble unless Luck is privy to  information on Harbaugh's future that no one else is.  It is possible that they worked out a deal that they would both return together.  But now you're talking about two people passing on the biggest opportunities they will ever have.

How about the the fact that Luck's stock will never be higher?  Aside from being the top prospect this season, ESPN analysts are calling him the best prospect in 20 years.  How can you improve that?  Many saw Jake Locker as the potential number one pick last year had he decided to enter the draft.  Now he is projected as a risky bottom first round pick.  Perception is 99 percent of the truth when you enter the draft and there is nothing Luck can do to improve that perception. 

What about money?  By declaring for the NFL this year, Luck would be able to have the benefits of an uncapped salary.  Because the NFL is heading for an inevitable lockout next season, many underclass prospects are wary of making the jump, but that reasoning should work opposite for players that would be top picks.  This will probably be the last season the NFL does not include a rookie salary cap.  For that reason, the number one pick will be paid significantly less next draft as opposed to this year's.  So even if Luck maintains his number one status, he is assuredly going to lose money.  In a sport like football, players need to get whatever money they can knowing the next play could be their last. 

Many have speculated that Luck is such a loyal guy that he wants to come back for his teammates.  That would be some amazing loyalty considering not one of those players would make the same decision for him.  Can you imagine one of his offensive lineman passing on the draft to return to school?  Luck's teammates all wish they could be in his situation.  Every college player in the country wishes they could be in his situation.

It is possible that Luck just loves his life as it currently is and isn't ready to make the leap to professional football.  The game is fun and easy for him right now, and he has achieved legendary status on his campus.  He is a smart guy attending a great university and he might just be content with that.  I suppose that's a possibility.  It is just hard to imagine having your dream come true handed to you on a silver platter and passing on it as if it will always be available.  As a competitor it doesn't make sense.

What makes more sense to me is the possibility that Luck can't stand being drafted by the Panthers, or he knows for a fact Harbaugh is returning to Stanford with him.  It is plausible that Harbaugh will wait another year before jumping ship, especially if he isn't interested in being the coach at Michigan.  If his intentions are to move on to the NFL, finding a better job than the 49ers will be difficult, but he might be willing to do that.  He could be working the system to get more money out of Stanford, but as of right now Harbaugh's future is up in the air.  So is Luck's until a decision is made.  I'll give Luck credit in this respect, he clearly knew what direction he wanted to go based on the amount of time it took him to declare his intentions.  You would at least think it would be a hard decision, but he didn't take much time deliberating.  That at least tells me he is comfortable in what he is doing.  Hopefully that comfort is worth about $30 million because that is what it will cost him in the best case scenario.