Saturday, December 18, 2010

Cliff Phillee

Two seasons ago the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee mid-year to be the staff ace entering the playoffs.  Lee was brilliant helping the Phillies get to the World Series.  He posted a 4-0 record, including 2-0 in the World Series.  The fit seemed perfect.  There was a gushing love affair that ensued between Lee and the Phillies that made most think the match would be successful for a long time. 

After the season ended, Lee was surprisingly dealt to Seattle in a three team trade that brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia.  Halladay was, and is, widely considered the best starter in baseball.  The trade was a success for the most part.  Halladay won 21 games and the Cy Young award.  He tossed the second no-hitter in playoff history in his first post-season game, but the Phillies came up short against the Giants in the NLCS.  

Lee went back to the playoffs with the Rangers and was dominant again.  He led Texas to their first World Series appearance in team history before hitters caught up to him.  As the playoffs unfolded I wondered how good the Phillies would be if they had both Lee and Halladay?  We'll find out this season as the Phils came from nowhere to nab the free agent last week. 

According to most media experts, it was a forgone conclusion that Lee would sign with the Yankees as a free agent.  No one would be able to match Yankee money, and baseball players always take the paycheck.  The MLB Players Union frowns heavily on free agents giving discounts even if the player doesn't want to sign with the highest bidder. 

There was an outside chance that he would stay in Texas after their World Series run.  New owner Nolan Ryan vowed to be competitive in the bidding for Lee, and he stayed true to his word.  At no point was any other team mentioned as a possible suitor, but in the end Philadelphia swooped in and signed the southpaw. 

Lee left $15 million in New York to sign with the Phillies, but he will still make $120 million over five years.  That should be enough to pay the rent.  Still, what he did is basically unprecedented in baseball.  There are only a few other examples of players leaving that kind of money behind.  Let's face it, $15 million is still a lot of money, even if you're already rich.

Halladay and Lee unquestionably comprise the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but that's not what has the rest of the league nervous.  The Phillies have two other aces in Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels taking the ball behind them. Both would be opening day starters on 80 percent of Major League teams.  The real beauty of these four pitching together is the tremendous balance.  Two are left handed and two are right handed so there won't be any advantage to teams heavy on one side of the plate. 

Many people want to compare them to the 1993 Atlanta Braves who ran out Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery.  There are uncanny similarities between the groups.  Even the pitching styles of the four look similar.  Halladay and Maddux, Lee and Glavine, Oswalt and Smoltz, Hamels and Avery.

Maddux is a multi-year Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer who threw with tremendous movement and unbelievable control.  He was not overpowering, but always seemed one step ahead of the hitter.  Halladay throws with similar movement and control and actually throws harder than Maddux did.  He will have a bust next to Maddux in Cooperstown eventually.  Both are right handed.

Glavine was a very smooth left hander who never gave in to hitters.  He had an effortless delivery and controlled the outside of the plate.  Lee has the ability to work inside more than Glavine, but he also doesn't get the two to three inches off the plate Glavine enjoyed.  Working inside is a necessity now that the strike zone is called more accurately.  Both have tremendous strikeout to walk ratios and both are left handed.

John Smoltz was overpowering with one of the most wicked right handed sliders ever.  He could run his fastball over 97 mph and was dominant as a starter and closer.  Oswalt is also overpowering utilizing more of an overhand curve instead of a slider.  He doesn't quite have the velocity Smoltz had, but he changes speeds a little more effectively.  Both are right handed.

Steve Avery began to fall apart after the 1993 season.  He was fabulous the first year of Maddux's arrival, but an injury slowed him down and he was never the same.  He only spent two more seasons with the Braves before moving on.  Hamels is capable of dominating, but he will also struggle at times.  Hamels and Avery were both the youngest of their groups, and both enjoyed tremendous success at an early age.  Hamels has shown some signs of decline but has gotten a reputation as a second half pitcher.  Both are left handed.

As a group, the Phillies pitchers are more accomplished in the playoffs than the Braves were in 1993.  Halladay has the most modest post-season resume that includes a no-hitter, and is the best pitcher of the four.  Lee was 7-0 before taking his first loss in the World Series last season, Oswalt is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA, and Hamels is a World Series MVP.  Think about that.  A former World Series MVP is now the fourth best starter for Philadelphia. 

The trio of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz pitched together for several seasons winning a World Series and making several trips to the post-season.  They did enjoy a pitcher friendly ball park which cannot be said for the Phillies.  At the same time, steroids began making an impact on baseball effectively wiping out any ballpark advantage.

Chances are unlikely that the Phillies can or will keep all four pitchers together, but this season should be very entertaining for Philadelphia.  Even with all that pitching, the Phillies still have the potential to beat you with their bats.  They lost Jason Werth to free agency which is a big blow, but they still have Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco and Shane Victorino to cushion the blow.  They didn't have their best season collectively as hitters last year, but the potential is endless in that lineup. 

Baseball's money issues and disparity of talent between the haves and have nots continues with the Phillies and Red Sox.  You can go ahead and pencil in Philadelphia and Boston for the World Series next season.  It is embarrassing how unbalanced teams have become. 

Aside for the NL East hitters and managers, the one person who crapped his pants when he heard about Lee's signing had to be head case closer, Brad Lidge.  He will shoulder the responsibility to close out the games his ace staff starts.  He has been both brilliant and awful seemingly every other year even before coming to Philadelphia. He better be sharp this season because fans and ownership won't put up with blown saves when they have tied up so much money on starting pitching.  The Philadelphia bullpen is about the only thing that can derail a team that talented.

Lee's move is vaguely reminiscent of Lebron James without the press conference.  He turned down more money to play with other supremely talented pitchers.  Lee can take the mound with virtually no pressure.  He will not be the ace of the staff, and he won't have to shoulder the responsibility on his own.  If he struggles, there are three other unbelievable pitchers there to pick him up.  He still makes nine figures, and returns to a city and teammates he became very fond of his first time around.

The role of fifth starter is likely to be a combination of several players, none of which will be current fifth starter Joe Blanton.  Blanton has become the forgotten man after the Lee signing, and the team will need to dump the $17 million he is owed over the next two years to cushion the blow of their other enormous signings.  I'm sure Blanton is fine to walk away from that situation, but I can't think of a more cushy job in the Bigs.  There is no expectation for wins out of the fifth spot, just a need to eat innings and get the ball back in Halladay's hands the next day.

With steroids all but eradicated from baseball, and offensive numbers plummeting, putting together a rotation like the Phillies is unfair.  We might as well hit fast forward on the coming season.  The suspense is over before the season starts.  Congratulations to the NL Champs of 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies. 

1 comment:

  1. I couldn't agree more! However, the Dodgers have spent a ton, San Fran is stronger, and the Rockies are formidable...oops, that's who the Pads get to battle all year! A few well placed injuries and the NL race might be interesting.

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