Thursday, October 21, 2010

Take Your Pick: Week 7

Week 6 was quite the bounce back week for me.  I went 11-3 and was pretty accurate picking scores.  This week is much more challenging.  There are several road teams and underdogs I like, so I will look very smart or very dumb.  According to Vegas, I like no less than seven underdogs this week.  I think I might be smarter than Vegas because they have the Chargers as a favorite over New England.  How can I have faith in a system that gives points to Tom Brady against a 2-4 team?  I hope they're right, but I don't see it.  Here's my picks.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Bengals season needs a shot in the arm.  They looked like they might get things on track after beating Baltimore, but went on to lose against Cleveland and Tampa.  A win in Atlanta could help a sputtering team get some confidence.  Atlanta became the toast of the NFC (strangely) after posting a 4-1 record.  They have had as much good fortune as any team in the league.  Philadelphia exposed them last week so the Falcons need a bounce back at home.  Most seem to like the Falcons but Cincy had a bye week to prepare.

Cincinnati: 30
Atlanta:       27

Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears


The Redskins have gone from below average to scrappy with McNabb.  They have a chance to win any game they play.  The Bears are 4-2 but couldn't be less impressive in the process.  If the Bears can't get their protection issues fixed, there won't be too many games they win, even at home.


Washington: 20
Chicago:        17

St. Louis Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers


After beating San Diego, the Rams season got serious.  They now stand at 3-3 with a winnable game that could vault them to first place in the conference.  The Rams are looking for their first road victory this season.  Much like the Rams, the Bucs have played over their head this year.  They got a dose of reality courtesy of the Saints last week.  They are also 1-2 at home.  I'm taking my third upset and third road team in three chances.

St. Louis:    23
Tampa Bay: 21

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers

The Niners hammered out their first win last week and have a great chance to make it two in a row.  They still didn't look dominant in any fashion, but they came away with the W which should provide some momentary reliefI'm not sure there is anything to say about the Panthers.  Okay, here's something...They had a bye last week.  Fourth straight road team.

San Francisco: 27
Carolina:           17

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

The real tragedy of the Buffalo Bills is that they don't have Carolina on the schedule this year.  That is a game I think they can win.  The Ravens lost a heart breaker to the Patriots last week.  They have played a very tough schedule so far this season and get a break this week at home.  I would not want to participate if I were the Bills.

Buffalo:      13
Baltimore: 34


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tennessee Titans


This could be one of the best games of the week.  Both teams are coming off big victories, and both stand at 4-2.  The Eagles have the edge with quarterback but the Titans have arguably the best running back in the league.  This game will most likely come down to defense and turnovers as good games often do.  Here is one unbelievable stat: Both teams are 3-0 on the road and 1-2 at home this season.  By that pattern, the Eagles look good here.


Philadelphia: 24
Tennessee:      22

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Jags were embarrassed at home against the Titans last Monday night.  Now they travel on a short week to Kansas City where the Chiefs have been surprisingly good.  Whenever I talk about the Chiefs at home I have to give their fans credit because they enjoy one of the two best home field advantages in the NFL.  Even though they lost in Houston last week, I am starting to believe this is a serious playoff contender based on their division.

Jacksonville:  17
Kansas City: 26

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins

Regardless of who's taking snaps, the Steelers will be favored in 90 percent of their games thanks to the defense.  They are playing Steelers formula football and pounding out wins each week.  The Dolphins are a solid team but are still seeking their first home win.  No one knows exactly what kind of team Miami will bring to the stadium.  Whichever team shows up, they won't be good enough to beat the Steelers.

Pittsburgh: 27
Miami:        14

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

The Browns have three quarterbacks that I wouldn't ever bet on.  Their best player is out with a concussion, and they have to travel to New Orleans.  The Saints got back on track after smoking Tampa Bay.  The Browns haven't been pushovers, but I don't see any way the Saints lose this game.  Of course, I didn't see how they could lose to Max Hall and the Cards in New Orleans either.

Cleveland:       16
New Orleans: 31

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Cards are coming off a bye week where Max Hall was able to get lots of reps in practice.  I really don't think much can help the Cardinals other than playing in the worst division in the NFL.  That being said, one of the few teams the Cardinals should beat is the Seahawks.  The game is in Seattle where the Seahawks are always a threat.  They are right up there with K.C. for best home field advantage.

Arizona: 13
Seattle:  17


New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers


The Pats established themselves as a top team (once again) after beating Baltimore last week.  New England and Tom Brady just knows how to win.  Even when the Chargers were good they couldn't get it done against the Pats.  This year they are not good and find themselves in a pivotal game.  Last year it was a win in New York that sparked a playoff run.  Could it be a win against the Pats this year?  No way.


New England: 35
San Diego:       20


Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Oakland strengths: Running the ball, defending the pass.
Denver strengths: Defending the run, passing the ball.
Oakland weaknesses: Passing the ball, defending the run.
Denver weaknesses: Defending the pass, running the ball.
Oakland is 0-3 on the road.

Oakland: 20
Denver:  28

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Only a sex scandal could derail the fanfare around Favre returning to Green Bay.  The Vikings seem to be slowly coming together, but Favre has to get going.  Adrian Peterson has been productive, but not as effective as he could be if the passing game could loosen up defenses.  The Vikings need Favre and Moss to develop some chemistry.  The phrase most commonly used when describing the Packers is, "decimated by injuries."  There really isn't much teams can do about a rash of injuries to key players.  Not to the degree the Packers have been hit.

Minnesota: 27
Green Bay:  24

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

At 4-2 the Giants are getting comfortable which is never a good place for them to be.  They have been great on defense and put together some nice offensive games.  The Cowboys are beyond desperate and another loss at home could mean Wade Phillips' job, regardless of what Jerry Jones says.  It would also cost them their season.  Aside from eliminating penalties, the Cowboys have to run the ball better.  It is do or die (again) for the Cowboys.  I'm not confident, but they need this game so much more than New York.

New York: 17
Dallas:      21

2 comments:

  1. Whoa Bill, I respect your coaching abilities but I just don't think of you that way

    ReplyDelete
  2. You know sleveless hoodies drive me crazy...Come here you fool

    ReplyDelete

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