Monday, August 16, 2010

USA Today Top 10

Are you ready for some football? I know you are. I am too. August is absolutely the slowest month of the year. When football is close enough to smell, suddenly time stops. Days feel like weeks. That is the reason I immerse myself in Major League Baseball every summer. I don't know how my friends and family can follow recruiting and talk football throughout the off-season. I have to pretend football doesn't exist until I can't stand it any longer. Well, I can't stand it any longer.

The USA Today poll starts the early season debates every year, and this year is no different. I toyed with the notion of doing my own top 10, but there is really no way to accurately rank teams before a new season starts, so what's the point. You can have an idea of what a team is expected to do, but until they start playing games, it's really just a guess. The only clear ranking is Alabama at #1. The returning national champions bringing back the Heisman Trophy winner pretty much ends that debate.

Here's my take on this year's USA Today Top 10

1. Alabama: No surprise here as the reigning national champions although they do lose nine starters on defense. Since Nick Saban took over the program, many believe Alabama has the best talent in the nation meaning their cupboard is not bare. The Tide return eight starters on offense including Heisman trophy winning RB Mark Ingram, QB Greg McElroy, and stud WR Julio Jones.

There isn't much in Alabama's schedule to suggest they won't win the SEC again, all but securing their spot in the BCS National Championship game. Three games to watch will be an early test against Penn State in Tuscaloosa, Florida also at home, and a game in Baton Rouge against LSU.

The only real roadblock I see for Alabama is the fact they will most likely have to beat Florida twice when they meet again in the SEC Championship. Not an easy thing to do. Ask Jason White about having to play Kansas State twice in the same season.

2. Ohio State: For the first time in many years, I actually believe the Buckeyes are worthy of their pre-season ranking. They got a huge boost from the Rose Bowl victory last year amidst speculation they couldn't win the big one. Of course the win came against Oregon and not USC, but it was an elusive BCS victory nonetheless.

QB Terrelle Pryor finally looked like he was in full command of the offense after two seasons of inconsistent play. The Buckeyes return lots of experience on offense and a host of several talented RBs to complement Pryor. They also return seven starters on defense which was ranked in the top five last year. And let's not forget the greatest strength of Ohio State is the fact they play in the Big Ten.

Games to watch will be an early test at home against Miami, a game on the road against reloaded Wisconsin, and another road test against Iowa at the end of the year. The Buckeyes will most likely have to go undefeated to reach the BCS National Championship game, and the lack of a conference championship game could bump them out of the top two at year's end.

3. Florida: No more Tebow. Words SEC coaches have been waiting to hear for four years. Unfortunately for them, the Gators have never been a one-man band under the watch of Urban Meyer. They consistently have elite recruiting classes and boast the best team speed in the country.

The Gators have a new look on offense with only six starters returning from last years team. Returning RB Jeff Demps will need to take pressure off of new QB John Brantley who has an inexperienced receiving unit.

Defensively the Gators return seven starters and have tons of talent and speed in the secondary. Like the offense you don't know what to expect, but what you do know is every player on the team is a blue chip recruit expected to be a big time player. It's just a matter of new names stepping up.

The Gators do not have a favorable schedule playing road games against Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida State.

4. Texas: If I wasn't superstitious I would say that this team is overrated. Without any notable RBs and a new QB, how this team is ranked fourth is beyond me. I guess it's that Texas charm that Mack Brown employs on the media.

You can't deny that UT has been one of the best programs in the country for a long time and always have a stable full of top recruits. There is no doubt they will be tough again, and likely post double digit wins en route to a National Championship run, if they beat Oklahoma.

Texas will have a lot of new faces with only five returning starters on offense. Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley were basically the whole offense last year, and they are gone. If Texas is unable to find a running game that was non-existent last year, they will not be a factor in the BCS.

Defensively the Longhorns will be excellent returning lots of experience in the secondary. This team will have to win with defense until they find their offensive stride. Texas does have a favorable schedule playing cupcakes for non-conference games and hosting Texas A&M. Of course the biggest game will be the Red River clash with Oklahoma, and they should be tested on the road against Nebraska.

5. Boise State: This one really bothers me. Based on the pre-season ranking, the Broncos have a very legitimate shot to play in the BCS National Championship. BSU returns nearly everyone from an undefeated team that beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

Why does it bother me? Because they still won't have to earn their shot. They begin the year against Virginia Tech (in Maryland for some reason) then get Oregon State at home three weeks later. That's it.

Here's the rest of the garbage they play: Wyoming, New Mexico State, Toledo, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada, Utah State. Not exactly murderers row.

Can you imagine a one loss SEC or Big XII team being kept out of the title game because Boise runs the table against those losers? It simply isn't right. One loss for a power conference team will keep them out, thanks to the Smurfs. Really aggravating.

6. Virginia Tech: These guys always seem overrated to me. I will admit that I never follow the Hokies too close, but that's because they are not relevant in the national picture half way through the season, and they play in the ACC.

Tech is expected to have a potent offense returning QB Tyrod Taylor and experience all around him. Defensively the Hokies will be inexperienced and will probably get torched against Boise State in the opener.

The ACC hopes to be more competitive this year which could work in two different ways for the Hokies. They can dominate an overrated conference but still lose to Boise State, or once again post a multiple loss season in an improved conference. I don't see it working any other way for these guys. North Carolina could be the team to beat in the ACC.

7. TCU: I can buy into TCU being a perennial power much easier than other mid major schools. They have the luxury of recruiting in the most fertile area for football in the country. Granted, they have to compete against several top schools, but TCU has proven there is plenty of talent to go around. The Horned Frogs have made a name for themselves nationally and should continue to improve their talent.

Unfortunately, TCU still suffers from weak scheduling and this year is worse than others. "Tests" will include: Oregon St., Baylor, BYU, and Utah. Of those, only Utah is a road game. None of those teams would be considered marquee. Far from it, really. TCU returns 18 starters from a team that went to a BCS game last year. We could easily see TCU and Boise undefeated and playing each other again in the "Who Cares" bowl.

8. Oklahoma: It was always my assumption that pre-season polls were based on a mix of the previous and coming season. For that reason, I believed OU would be fairly ranked around 11 or 12 to start the season. If this ranking is only based on how strong the team is perceived to be starting the season, I like the Sooners at #4 or #5. Either just above, or just below Texas would make sense to me.

The Sooners had two major problems last year. Injuries and injuries. The offensive line was not elite to start the season, but they weren't hopeless. It just worked out that the weakest link on a team that started the year #1 or #2 (depending on poll) was hit the hardest by injuries. That lead to more injuries including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford.

Eight wins is once again considered suffering in Norman. Memories of the John Blake era have washed away taking Howard Schnellenberger and Gary Gibbs with them. Bob Stoops has restored pride and consistency in OU football, but is coming off one of the toughest years in his coaching tenure.

From suffering comes reward as QB Landry Jones will take the helm as an experienced starter rather than an inexperienced sophomore. There was never any doubt of Jones' physical tools, but he was inconsistent with decision making and accuracy which cost the Sooners in several close games. He basically played like a freshman. Jones continued to improve and showed flashes of brilliance against Stanford in the Sun Bowl, giving OU their first bowl win in three years. I would compare Jones as a freshman to Nate Hybl as a junior. The only difference being Jones improved during the season.

This year the offensive line starts with some experience and talent, but also healthy. Trent Williams is gone but tackle Donald Stephenson will get to play after being ineligible last year. He has already drawn comparisons to Williams (Trent Williams will most likely start for the Redskins next to former OU lineman Jammal Brown. What are the chances?).

Center Ben Habern is back from injury and if Cory Brandon and Jarvis Jones can avoid penalties, their size and experience should change the landscape of the line. OU also converted TEs Eric Mensik and Gabe Ikard to offensive lineman and both have gotten bigger and been praised for their transition.

If QB and offensive line play improve, the rest of the offense is talented enough to put up points against anybody. All purpose RB Demarco Murray returns for his senior season and had his first healthy off-season as a Sooner. Murray trimmed down to a more comfortable running weight but still combines power with speed. Murray's post surgery flexibility was a concern, but he has reportedly been doing yoga and a leaner frame will help quickness and shiftiness. Big things are expected out of Murray who looks to be one of the top all purpose backs in the country again, catching passes and handling kick off returns.

While Murray is expected to handle the bulk of the carries, OU has a stable full of blue chip RBs who are foaming at the mouth to get their hands on the ball. Former #1 high school recruit Jermie Calhoun will back up Murray with Jonathan Miller who averaged 7.2 yards a carry last year before being sidelined with injuries. The herd doesn't end there with two highly touted freshman (Brennan Clay and Roy Finch) expected to see time next year, mostly in special teams.

Ryan Broyles headlines a receiving corps that struggled early last season to catch the ball. WR Dejuan Miller emerged as a second pass catching threat with excellent size and power. Jaz Reynolds and Brandon Caleb are expected to step up after disappointing seasons. Freshman Kenny Stills has been turning heads this summer and might see significant time. The unit has potential to be one of the best in the country.

Special teams should be a strength if the Sooners find a reliable kicker. Last year OU struggled heavily putting the ball through the uprights. Kick and punt returns should be electrifying with Broyles and Murray providing big play capability. The special teams kick cover unit played much better than their 2008-2009 predecessors, but memories of Jordan Shipley returning a kick for a TD (along with 3 others) should keep them on their toes.

Defense has rarely been a concern with Bob Stoops' Sooners. Despite losing both starting corners and Gerald McCoy, OU looks to have another solid defense. DT Adrian Taylor needs to get healthy after breaking his ankle last year. The D-line should be formidable with DE Jeremy Beal receiving lots of pre-season attention. OU returns experience with Frank Alexander at the other end, and celebrated recruit Jamarkus McFarland is slated to start next to Taylor.

Although they will have a new look, the linebackers are exciting for the Sooners. All Big XII LB Travis Lewis is being mentioned with the best linebackers in the country. Next to him will be a combination of players including fan favorite Ronnell Lewis, nicknamed "the Hammer" from Stoops himself. Ronnell has been described as one of the most violent hitters of the Stoops era. His size and speed have drawn comparisons to Roy Williams which is high praise in Oklahoma. Austin Box has two years of experience under his belt, and talented freshman Tom Wort has impressed coaches since red shirting last year.

The secondary could be a concern depending on who lines up at DB. Former safety Jonathan Nelson was moved to DB and will likely to be joined by unproven Demontre Hurst. Free safety Quentin Carter is known for hitting on a team full of hitters.

OU has several hurdles they must clear before feeling National Championship caliber. They play a challenging non-conference schedule (unlike Texas) hosting Florida State followed by a solid Air Force team. They go on the road to play Cincinnati who still maintain lots of talent from former coach Brian Kelly.

No rest for the weary as the Sooners open conference play against Texas. The rest of the schedule is winnable but OU must travel to College Station which is always tough even when the Aggies aren't. A&M has become a dark horse pick out of the South with returning QB Jerrod Johnson.

And of course, should the Sooners clear all those hurdles, they finish off the year in Stillwater against a Cowboy team who never has anything to lose. It also looks like there might be a challenge out of the North in the conference championship with Bo Pelini and Nebraska.

If OU is to make the National Championship game it will be well earned. I believe this team can win every game on the schedule, but it is a very tough schedule.  Several areas must be addressed:

First, a reliable kicker must emerge. OU left a lot of points on the field with poor kicking last season, with no solution found yet for this season.

Second, the offensive line must create running lanes. The Sooners have to give their backs a chance to be successful. If they are, the passing game will open up and lots of pressure will be taken off Landry Jones. OU struggled to run block last season.

Third, OU will have to cover. The Sooners play many teams with wide open passing attacks and will be breaking in some young players in the secondary.

Fourth, a TE stepping up would be nice. The Sooners will combine Trent Ratterree and James Hanna that saw time, but never became a threat last season. We all saw what a pass catching presence like Jermaine Gresham could do for a QB.

Fifth, stay injury free. After the wave of injuries sustained by OU players last year, one would think this year will be less destructive.

9. Nebraska: It's been a long time since Nebraska has played with a target on their backs, but it looks like they will this year. Nebraska almost won the conference without a QB thanks to their stellar defense last season. Ndamukong Suh is gone but Jared Crick is ready to get his name mentioned without Suh taking the attention. They also have one of the best DBs in the country in Prince Amukamara entering his senior season. Confidence levels are high in Lincoln with Bo Pelini declaring Nebraska will win the conference.

Offensively the Huskers season teeters on QB play. Last year saw inconsistent play from Zac Lee until the Holiday Bowl shellacking of Arizona. Lee underwent arm surgery missing Spring practice and giving backups Cody Green and Taylor Martinez a chance to compete for the starting job.

The running game is expected to be solid with a nice offensive line and experienced backs like Roy Helu. The Huskers never established much of a passing game last year and look to improve with returning WR Niles Paul and TE Mike McNeil.

If Lee is healthy he should start, and if Nebraska can put together an offense like the one that showed up for the Holiday Bowl, they will be very good. The Huskers shouldn't be challenged by any North teams, but do play Texas at home, and go on the road against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. They will also face Jake Locker in Washington for an early non-conference test. It will be the only non-conference test since they play high school teams for their other three games.

Several analysts picked Nebraska to restore some balance to the Big XII just before they exit to the Big Ten. No one in the conference wants to see the Huskers walk away with the last Big XII championship.

My guess is Husker fans would have rather entered the season under the radar, but I'm sure they're happy with more media attention. Nebraska could be destined to meet Oklahoma in the conference championship. It would be a fitting way for the rivalry to end. By that I mean OU cementing their legacy as the dominate program in the OU-Neb tradition.

10. Iowa: Ohio State has owned the Big Ten for so long that it really is hard to take any Big Ten school seriously. Iowa has been a nice story the last several years, but really wasn't strong enough to rise to an elite status.

This year Iowa returns their entire defensive line which should be the strength of the team. QB Ricky Stanzi is starting his third season for the Hawkeyes. He is 18-4 as a starter, but has a 17-15 TD/INT ratio. Iowa has some good looking RBs but the offensive line will be inexperienced, especially after losing Brian Bulaga to the NFL. Iowa's defense and special teams should be good for second place in the Big Ten.


Iowa probably wouldn't have made the Top 10 if USC was eligible to be ranked. Isn't that some sweet justice? Looks like the Big Ten will have a chance in the Rose Bowl again this year. I guess we should congratulate Ohio State right now.

Pre-season predictions are about as scientific as a horse race, but here's some conference picks anyway:

SEC: Alabama

Big XII: Oklahoma

Pac 10: Oregon

ACC: North Carolina

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big East: Cincinnati

Mountain West: TCU

WAC: Boise State

Conference USA: Houston

MAC: Central Michigan

Sun Belt: 9 way tie for last place

3 comments:

  1. My favorite part of this is the picture of the Texas and OU baby and the larger than everybody else's school logo for OU. Another great blog.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Texas/OU babies picture is awesome but I think my favorite part is that each school was awarded an average of 3 to 5 paragraphs and OU got something like 17......
    Boomer Sooner! Can't wait for OU/FSU!

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  3. It is time for Sooner football! Great article!! This year is going to be special!

    ReplyDelete

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