The Chargers have won five of the last six AFC West championships. Kansas City has been rebuilding, Denver has been in decline, and Oakland has been a laughing stock. While the fates of Denver and Kansas City don't look much better this season, Oakland could be a surprise.
The biggest change will be Jason Campbell at quarterback. Campbell is the anti-Jamarcus Russell. A squeaky clean, conservative player who weighs less than 300 lbs. Campbell will have three talented young receivers and a proven pass-catching tight end to throw to.
Oakland's backfield includes Darren McFadden and Michael Bush who could both be ready for breakout seasons. McFadden's injury issues have kept him off the field since turning pro, making this season very important in his progression.
Bush was a Heisman candidate before missing his senior year at Louisville with a broken leg. He had to sit out his rookie season to heal, but looked good in minimal carries last year. Running behind Robert Gallery, you never know what type of production Bush and McFadden are capable of.
Defensively, Oakland has lock down corner Nnamdi Asomugha, veteran leader Richard Seymour, and first round draft pick Rolando McClain at linebacker. The Raiders will have to learn to defend the run if they are going to improve this year.
San Diego is favored to win the division again, but they have concerns entering this season. WR Vincent Jackson and OT Marcus Mcneil remain unsigned, and will most likely sit out the first half of the season. With TE Antonio Gates getting older, Jackson's absence will be noticed. San Diego will need Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee to pick up the slack in Jackson's absence.
San Diego's run game begins the post-Ladainian era with rookie Ryan Mathews handling the bulk of the carries. The Chargers were 31st in rushing last year, something the team has made their primary concern. They'll just have to improve without McNeil on the line.
The Chargers parted ways with defensive stalwarts Antonio Cromartie (da Babymaker) and Jamal Williams. They will need to pay special attention to stopping the run. A weakness that cost them against the Jets in the playoffs last season.
The Chargers have a 13 game winning streak against the Raiders which can't last forever. They also have a history of slow starts and furious comebacks against weak divisional foes. A slow start this year could give the Raiders confidence...you never know.
Houston has been the hot pick as a "surprise team" the last three seasons by football gurus everywhere. They have been a let down the last two seasons, but I think third times a charm for the Texans. Here are my AFC playoff picks:
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC East: New York Jets
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
WC: Houston Texans
WC: Miami Dolphins (maybe Pats)
The Texans will be in great shape if they can sweep Tennessee this year. There is no reason to think the Colts won't be as tough as always, so it will come down to a Wild Card berth for the Texans.
Houston needs to find a reliable ball carrier with Steve Slaton fumbling enough to lose his starting position last year. They do boast the best receiver in the league with Andre Johnson, and a very productive QB delivering him the ball in Matt Schaub. In a weaker than normal AFC, the Texans should find themselves in the playoffs for the first time.
I never gave Tom Brady credit for anything. I never liked Brady. He irritated me, and his success seemed unearned. Too effortless. It wasn't until I watched Sam Bradford that I changed my mind.
Bradford's calm demeanor, pocket presence, and smooth, accurate delivery are very reminiscent of Brady. His keeps his composure and throws effortlessly and impossibly accurate. When Bradford wins a couple games with the lowly Rams, his success should draw comparisons. Let's face it, if he can win in St. Louis, there's reason to believe he will be the next Tom Brady.
Question: Kyle Orton. Brady Quinn. Tim Tebow. Besides being quarterbacks for the Denver Broncos, what do those guys have in common?
Answer: They're not good.
Not one of those QBs is good enough to win games for Denver, so why wouldn't they start Tebow at some point? He commands Favre like fan interest, and he signed for first round money. He will be profitable for the Broncos, win or lose, because the stadium will be filled wherever he plays. The fan and media hassling will be enough motivation for the coaches to give him a shot. He might start week 16 when Denver is out of contention. Although by that logic he could start week 11.
I think Baltimore will cruise through the AFC with the Colts providing the only competition. Peyton Manning shows no signs of slowing down which makes it hard to pick against him, but a lack of a consistent running attack gives Baltimore the edge.
The Ravens have a balanced offense and a solid, physical defense. RB Ray Rice is on the verge of stardom, and Joe Flacco has enough experience and pass catching weapons to have his best season. If the offense struggles, the defense is good enough to keep them in the game.
Conference teams that improved (like the Dolphins) aren't quite as good as the Ravens, and the good teams (like the Chargers) did not improve. I don't believe the Patriots defense is good enough to get them to the playoffs, and I'm really not sold on a Revisless Jets. Ravens look good to me.
The NFC has a lot of dangerous teams this season, but I think the Packers will score their way through the field. I like QB Aaron Rodgers to win the MVP, and the Pack to be the highest scoring team in the league. They probably have the best receiving corps in the NFL, and don't forget about RB Ryan Grant. The defense is good enough to win games, similar to New Orleans last year.
Speaking of New Orleans, the Saints will be looking to defend their title. They will be excellent again this year, but it's hard to repeat a Super Bowl run.
Dallas will also have a high-powered offense, and the motivation of hosting Super Bowl XLV. QB Tony Romo's playoff resume keeps me from picking them for a deep playoff run although they should have a fine regular season.
Most importantly, Green Bay will have to beat Favre and Minnesota. With the odds of Favre repeating anything close to what he did last year being very slim, Green Bay could beat them three times. The only reason to doubt the Packers Super Bowl hopes is Aaron Rodgers' inexperience in the playoffs, but he was incredible in his playoff loss to Arizona last year.
Here's my NFC playoff picks:
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
WC: Minnesota Vikings
WC: Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay wins the Super Bowl.
Be careful your obvious bias against Tebow may be showing. You failed to go on to say that when he does start one game he will also be taken out for poor performance. :) Sam Bradford will shine even with the crappy team he has to play for and show Tebow what a real quarterback should look like.
ReplyDeleteGreat post! I find it interesting that the NFC East is not the talked about conference this year. Great teams with great traditions but don't appear to be the cream of the crop. Pro football is very balanced right now. I'm not sure if that means many good teams or many average teams looking for a little luck.
ReplyDeleteIt should be an interesting season...especially since there won't be any pro football next year!! Maybe they will learn from the NHL lockout year.