Last Call

It has taken a great deal of effort to sit down and post my thoughts about championship Sunday in the NFL after last week's debacle. As late as this is going out, I imagine this won't get read until after the games are over, so I will keep it short.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

No team of recent memory has been more fortunate than the Jets. After getting walked into the playoffs, they played two teams that went a combined 0-5 kicking field goals. Neither the Bengals or Chargers gave a good effort at home, and the defense of the Jets was enough to keep them in games. They have done a pretty good job of ball protection and have taken advantage of their opponents mistakes.

That being said, I can't imagine there is any way that the Colts fall victim to the Jets brand of football. Indy should understand what they are up against unlike the Jets previous two opponents. The most important difference this week is Colts QB Peyton Manning, the consummate professional. Manning has not had the postseason success you would expect for a QB of his caliber, but every team that has been a thorn in his side is watching on TV.

The path to the Super Bowl could not be more perfect for Manning. Doesn't it seem inevitable that he will have two Super Bowl championships? He can't be known for tying his brother in Super Bowl victories. The Colts played a warm up last week when they beat the Baltimore Ravens who could be the twin brother of the Jets.

Once again it will be strength against strength. The Colts passing offense against the Jets blitzing defense. The Jets pressure QBs 60 percent of the snaps but Manning has a QB rating of 118 against the blitz this year. Indy boasts a more consistent defense than San Diego or Cincy. Without a passing attack, I don't see the Jets putting up enough points to keep up with Manning. Jets DB Darrelle Revis will cover Colts WR Reggie Wayne which should be Revis' toughest challenge this postseason.

The outcome shouldn't be taken for granted since a similar argument has been made against the Jets for the past two rounds by nearly everyone. The Jets have shown great resiliency to match their tremendous luck, but their luck has to run out this week. I like the Colts BIG. I think Manning leads at least four TD drives, and the Colts eclipse 30 points.

Colts 31 Jets 13

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

It seems like the best matchups this postseason have been in the NFC, but the games have all turned out to be lopsided. I thought Minnesota vs. Dallas would be a very competitive game, but the Vikings pounded Dallas like veal. Suddenly WR Sidney Rice is on top of the world and RB Adrian Peterson has taken a back seat. Brett Favre has not disappointed this year, and the playoff win has to give him confidence.

The Saints reminded the world why they are the number one seed as they pummelled the Cardinals last week. All purpose back Reggie Bush came up with a great game which occurs about every ten. QB Drew Brees was sharp early, and they put away the Cards by the start of the second quarter. The Saints offense was clicking on all cylinders, but they also faced a team that gave up 45 points the previous week. More impressive was their ability to shut down QB Kurt Warner and the Cardinals high powered offense.

The Saints weren't really tested last week, and they will actually have to play against a real NFL defense. Minnesota should feel very confident after last week's win. They have been able to win several games without Peterson getting his usual yards, and they have the best defensive line in the league.

Two things work against the Vikings though. First, they are on the road. The home (or dome) field advantage Minnesota enjoys is one of the biggest in the NFL. The few times the Vikes looked vulnerable were on the road. The second problem the Vikings have is that I will be rooting for them. They have been my safety team after drafting Peterson, and just like always, I will need them to come through to salvage some joy out of this post season.

New Orleans is not immune to some bad voodoo either. Much like San Diego, they have never been a team that has gotten over their playoff woes. In the age of BB (Before Brees), the Saints couldn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. When I lived in New Orleans, fans would wear monkeys on their backs to try and reverse the jinx of first round losses. Now that Brees has taken over, they have had more success, but still have not made it past the championship game. This would be a monumental win for the Saints and their fans. This is the first year the Saints will host an NFC championship game.

To see Favre against Manning in the Super Bowl would be tremendous. Manning against Brees would be fun, but it just doesn't have the same feel. Favre vs. Manning would be like Magic vs. Bird at the end of their careers. If Peterson can get going, it will give Favre and the rest of the offense a big boost. He's like a power hitter in a slump, and you know he is due for a breakout(for those keeping track, that is an NBA analogy followed by an MLB analogy, both to describe the NFL. Nice.) Eventually a hole will open up for him and he'll take it to the house. If the difference becomes who has the better defense, you have to go with the Vikings.

My heart says Minnesota, my head says New Orleans. Either team can win this game, the real prediction is deciding what kind of game it will be. Turnovers? Sloppy play? More defense than expected? Shootout? All of these factors are involved. Can Brett really make it to the Super Bowl this year? Is it Brees' turn? Enough! I believe the offenses will win out.

Minnesota 30 New Orleans 35

Can I Get You Another Round?

Finally! The wild card round of the playoffs is over and we can focus on the teams that really matter. Like the Chargers and Vikings. Why the Vikings? Because they have All Day, Adrian Peterson. That's why.

The first round of the playoffs had three games that were not very competitive, and one game that will be a classic forever. I knew what I was talking about when I said I would not be surprised by any of the winners, considering I missed three of my four picks. I have done pretty well picking NFL games this year, but last week was not what I expected.

If I had one lock for any game last week, it was New England defending their home field. But Baltimore won the game after the first play from scrimmage and made the Patriots look like I described them in my earlier post, The Fall of Ego (that's the first time I have plugged one of my posts, so don't hold it against me). RB Ray Rice has exceeded expectations, and appears to be the spitting image of Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew.

I never thought I would see Tom Brady get beat at home in the playoffs, but I have been waiting a long time for it to happen. I was surprised that I wasn't more excited, but I realized the Chargers might have to play the Ravens in the AFC championship. The Bolts can beat Indianapolis in their sleep but can't figure out Baltimore.

The Jets beat the Bengals on the road, and looked great doing so. If I had any guts I would have picked that game correctly, but I went against my better judgment and took the home team. I guess I forgot that you should never bet on the Bengals. But am I right in thinking that you should never bet on the Jets either?

Just making the playoffs was good enough for Cincy and they decided not to show up for the game. Who really knows how good the Jets are since they keep playing teams that are handing them the win. You wouldn't think it would happen in the playoffs, and it looks really bad for the legacy of QB Carson Palmer.

The Cowboys and Tony Romo finally got over the playoff hump and they have cemented themselves as the sexy pick for the NFC championship. Head coach Wade Phillips is safe for another year, and if I have any Dallas fans reading this, I would like to offer some insight on Phillips. He might not be the tough disciplinarian many want, and it might have taken him a few years to make his mark, but the strength of the Cowboys is their defense which he directs. I can tell you, I loved Phillips when he was the defensive coordinator for the Chargers. He put together the best San Diego defense I ever watched play. You would be wise to give him some credit for the job he did this year, regardless of what happens in Minnesota.

It was back to back poor performances for the Eagles, which is the only thing I did see coming last week. As much as I could not believe that I was taking the Cowboys to win a playoff game, I had less faith in the Eagles to rebound from the poor performance against Dallas the week prior. Eagles fans are ready to get rid of Donovan McNabb, which is Philly for you. A fresh start somewhere else might be a good idea, though. Like say...Minnesota?

Then there was the best wild card game of the decade (being just over a week old) with Cardinals QB Kurt Warner growing his illustrious legendary status. He does not lose many playoff games. Everyone in the world was picking the Packers. Green Bay did have a chance to win, but it would have been no fault of Warner's who put up one of the best statistical games ever in the postseason. He already owns most of the records in Super Bowl games.

It looked like a blowout early, but QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers stormed back and had a chance to win. Rodgers lived up to the hype he received before the game. What happened to the Packers defense? Warner, I guess.

On a night where the record for most points scored in a playoff game was broken, it was a defensive play that finally ended the game, albeit in controversy. In the end, 38 year old Warner added to his Hall of Fame resume by throwing more touchdowns (5) than incomplete passes (4), and his team continues to defend their NFC championship crown from last year.

With the Cardinals...Wow. Same guy who went to the Super Bowl with St. Louis. Twice. Can anyone tell me what any other coach or player has done since? How about the team? Someone please tell me Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. I can win that argument in 15 seconds. I wish the Vikings could trade Brett Favre for Warner right now. And I'm a Brett Favre fan.

Sorry for the rant.

I'll end it by saying, I like Kurt Warner.

Continuing...

This week should be even more interesting now that the pretenders are out of the picture. Let's take a look at the matchups.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

Arizona comes to New Orleans after an emotional win at home and a spectacular offensive output. Don't expect the game this week against the Saints to be much different. The Saints were the leagues most dominate team in the first half of the season, especially on offense. But they faltered down the stretch leaving many to doubt their legitimacy as a contender. Saints QB Drew Brees had another fantastic year leading his team to the number one seed in the NFC, but their spotty play late in the season, added to their long layoff, doesn't bode well for who dat nation.

Brees is still an infant when it comes to the playoffs, just 3-3 lifetime. The Cards might get WR Anquan Boldin back for this game which would improve an offense that just posted 51 points against what was supposed to be a good Packers defense.

I love Brees and the Saints offense, but I'm not sure the layoff was a good thing for New Orleans. They are such a rhythmic team, it's hard to see how time off could help that.

I think Arizona will ride the momentum of their first round victory and beat the Saints in a close one. The Cardinals defense will have to hold New Orleans to 34. In order for the Saints to win they will have to revert to their mid season form. Vegas has the over/under at 57 for this game. I would bet the house on the over. I can't wait to see Brees and Warner go at it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens put together their best game of the season last week, beating the Patriots convincingly in New England. Now they must go on the road and face Peyton Manning and the top seeded Colts. Indy chose to rest their star players after they secured the top seed in the AFC, and have not played a full game with their starters in several weeks. Many are concerned that the layoff will work against the momentum the Colts built throughout the year.

To me, it was a smart move with a team as old as the Colts. They have veteran players throughout their lineup which makes me think, not only do they need rest, they will be professional enough to be ready to play after the layoff.

Manning does not have the best track record in the playoffs, but it would take an unbelievable achievement for the Ravens to knock off New England and Indianapolis on the road in consecutive weeks.

Turnovers and running the ball were the keys to victory for Baltimore, last week. I think they will have a hard time getting turnovers against Manning, and they surely won't replicate the success they had running the ball. For the Ravens to have a chance, they are probably going to need QB Joe Flacco to step up and play well. Something they didn't need against the Patriots.

I think the well rested, veteran Colts will win this game in a nail biter. I like Manning to cement the win late in the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Once again, Dallas is involved in what most are projecting to be the best matchup of the weekend. Now that they have won in December and the playoffs, the Cowboys faithful are looking for the Super Bowl title.

The main difference this week is they have to do it on the road. Dallas had a great win in December against the Saints in New Orleans. All the other Cowboys wins since have been at home. The strength of the team has been defense, but they have been balanced on offense as well. It doesn't hurt that Romo is not dating a pop star and subsequently playing the best football of his career.

Minnesota comes in well rested with the ultimate veteran Brett Favre. Many teams have found a way to contain the rushing attack of the Vikings by focusing on RB Adrian Peterson every play. Peterson's true greatness is apparent with the year that Favre had. Without the run game consuming so much attention, do you really think Favre would have had his best touchdown to interception ratio? Deciding how to defend the run will be a challenge for Dallas' defense.

The other challenge will be the superb defensive line of the Vikings. With breakdowns in the secondary, the Vikings defensive line kept their defense solid, led by sack machine Jared Allen. The Cowboys have not faced a D line this good all year. The good news for Dallas is that Romo gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league, and they run a lot of three step drops which should combat the rush of Minnesota.

I think Peterson needs to get going early by breaking a big run and taking some pressure off of Favre. Peterson hasn't eclipsed the 100 yard mark in his last seven games and it seems like he's due for a breakout. Still, the Cowboys' defense is not an easy place to start.

Another tough one to call, but I think Minnesota wins at home. Expectations should be taken in baby steps for Cowboys fans, and Minnesota plays awfully well at home. The team that gets the most turnovers will win this one.

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

San Diego has been in this position several times. Playing at home in a game they are supposed to win. They seem to have a tougher time as the favorite rather than playing as an underdog.

Over the last 11 weeks of the season the Chargers have been the most consistent team in the NFL, and the leagues best offense. They boast four receivers and tight ends that are 6'4" or taller. QB Phillip Rivers deserved a better look as the league's MVP, and WR Vincent Jackson was robbed to not make the AFC Pro Bowl roster.

The Jets come into San Diego as the Cinderella of the postseason after defying the odds to even make the playoffs. Their good fortune continued when they faced a Bengals team twice in successive weeks that just rolled over and let them have their way. The term "shut down corner" is once again en vogue thanks to DB Darrelle Revis who has shut down every top receiver he lined up against this year. The Jets will look to assert their run game which is rated tops in the NFL, and play great defense, also first in the league.

It is a battle of offense against defense, but the Chargers are more experienced, more talented, and playing at home. They are also healthier than they have been all season. Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates should provide matchup nightmares for the Jets defense, and the heavy blitzing schemes of Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be countered with screen passes to Darren Sproles. Sooners fans know what Sproles can do with the ball in his hands. Should the game be close in the fourth quarter, Rivers is probably the best closer in the league, with all due respect to Manning.

In the end, I like my Chargers at home. If they protect the ball and hold the Jets to field goals, this one could be over in the third quarter.

Father Time Has a Cannon

Like any other sports fan with a daily sports show addiction, I was sick to death of the Brett Favre saga that has become an annual sports tradtion. After watching his melt down at the end of last season with the New York Jets, I felt like there was no way he could come back and contribute to a professional team. It looked as if his football mid life crisis was going to leave a greasy, black stain on his hall of fame masterpiece career.

He looked old. He couldn't throw the ball down the field, and had teammates calling him out for dividing the locker room (I believe ESPN threw the term "schism" around quite a bit leading up to his debut with the Minnesota Vikings). Why would he come back and subject himself to the pain of the NFL as a 40 year old? What could he possibly have left to offer? Is his desire to get under center just to stuff it in the face of Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers, or does he really believe he can still play? Favre has come back this year and made anyone who questioned his ability to play football feel very foolish, me included.

I am not a Favre hater. How can you be? Regardless of how he ever performed on the field, his consecutive games played streak (276 and counting) as a quarterback has to be one of sports most impressive feats. He is also a three time MVP, a clutch performer, and a Super Bowl champion. He has done everything you could ask for in a quarterback over his career. He plays the game with more grit and passion than anyone around him, and he is exciting to watch whether you admit it, or not. He has always embodied the spirit of NFLs ironman, and this year is no different.

After having his arm surgically repaired in the off season, Favre is back throwing the ball harder, and with a tighter spiral than 90 percent of the league. He still plays the game with youthful exuberance, and he still has a flair for clutch heroics (We all saw his game winning throw against San Francisco. That ball was an absolute laser). Unless you are a Green Bay Packer fan, player, or member of their operations, you have to appreciate what he has been able to do this year. I know there are bitter football fans who have had their team torched by Favre. But really, how could you not like this guy?

Speaking of the Green Bay Packers, Favre got the pay back he was undoubtedly looking for coming in to this season. Not only did he beat his former team playing for their divisional rival, he played a major role in the beatings. In two games against his former team he threw seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. Interceptions have plagued him when he was younger, and when he was not surrounded with the ground support and defense that he is currently playing with. That is always the point Favre haters make. "Look at how many interceptions he has thrown over his career. He's a gunslinger, he can't change that mentality."

This year, Favre has done what the haters thought he couldn't. He has become the most talented game manager in the NFL. Most agree the best player in the league is Vikings running back, Adrian Peterson. It seemed all the Vikings were missing from seriously contending for a Super Bowl was a quarterback. So naturally, bringing in Favre doesn't change defensive game plans. Opponents of the Vikings look to shut down the run and make the Vikings beat you through the air. The only problem is Favre has had no problem beating teams through the air. He has thrown 16 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, good for a 106 passer rating.

Oh yeah. He's doing all this as a 40 year old.

He's 40, and if they voted today he is deserving of the league MVP (no disrespect to Peyton Manning or Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson). He's 40 in a league where running backs are left for dead at 30. He's 40, and he has 22 year old beasts chasing him around the field trying to crush him. He's 40, and he still throws the ball with velocity receivers can hear coming. He's 40, but his arm is 24.

The greatest part of Favre's game is that he can still be great with more pressure on him than anyone else in the NFL. He has endured public scrutiny over his off season floundering, and his age for over two years. He survived the crash and burn of a failed attempt with the New York Jets. He was showered with a chorus of boos when he stepped onto Lambeau Field for the first time as a visitor. He sustained several concussions throughout his career, and had shoulder surgery just a few months ago. He battled all of these pressures, and done so visibly nervous, yet still had the fortitude to play above everyone's expectations.

Can you really imagine being Brett Favre and getting booed by Green Bay Packers fans? Packers fans should use the collective energy it took for those boos, and build him a statue next to Vince Lombardi's to honor what he did for that organization. The camera was zoomed right on Farve's face to start the Packers game and you could see the emotion dancing in his eyes, but when he snapped on his chin strap, he blocked it out and went to work. Once the Vikings got a lead (mostly on short swing passes and runs by Peterson), the Vikings turned Favre loose and allowed him to give his old team a close up view of what he could still do on a football field. After dismantling the Packers defense for the second time this season, the camera man caught a shot of Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers with a look of disbelief plastered all over his face. Many argued before the game that a win might mean more to Rodgers than to Favre.

Currently, Favre and the Vikings are 7-1 and look to be headed for a clash with the New Orleans Saints as the top team in the NFC. If the Vikings play for a Super Bowl led by Favre, it will be the greatest achievement (consecutive games streak aside) of his hall of fame career. Of course, Father Time might have something to say about how Favre finishes another long NFL season. It was toward the end of the season that his play really declined last year. Eventually it has to catch up with him like it does everyone else. Although, most of his problems last year can be attributed to his arm injury which is clearly no longer an issue. From where I'm sitting, Brett Favre is Father Time, and Father Time still has a cannon.

Even if the dramatics were self imposed by his inability to stick with a decision, you have to appreciate the way he is defying the odds with his comeback. Brett Favre may no longer be a popular figure in Wisconsin, but he should have made some new fans around the country. You can count me as one of them, and I'm not ashamed to admit it.