Super Bowl Shuffle

The end of the football season has come and gone, and I am left with that familiar feeling of incompleteness. The Super Bowl was fairly entertaining with a surprising outcome, but it wasn't enough to satisfy the experience. Despite being shocked by the bravado of Saints head coach Sean Payton calling an onside kick to start the second half, and being equally shocked Colts QB Peyton Manning threw an untimely interception that cost his team the game, I felt myself counting down the minutes until the close of the season.

The game was remarkably clean with regards to penalties and flow. Both teams sustained long possessions (especially in the first half) which kept the game clock moving. Unfortunately, for every minute of televised football there were 51 seconds of commercials.

There is always buzz from the general public about Super Bowl ads. Viewers compare and rate new ads with the same enthusiasm many compare and rate the teams playing in the game. It has become a game in itself. The Super Bowl would not be the spectacle it has become if not for this anticipation. For that reason, the commercials are a relevant topic every year, and should not be ignored as part of the Super Bowl experience.

Personally, there isn't much I like about ads during any football game, even the Super Bowl, but this year helped me change my opinion. What was once mild irritation has blossomed into full blown hatred after being subjected to the mind numbing garbage the ad wizards submitted this year. Add a massive quantity of breaks with an extended halftime and you get a grueling battle with time.

Have you ever seen a bigger collective whiff from companies spending millions to promote their product? The thought process seemed to be scrap originality and rely on sex, violence, animals, and gimmicks. I realize that works for beer companies, but the ideology spilled over to the majority of spots on the biggest promotional platform of the year.

Let me start the bashing with Go Daddy. Not only is the campaign juvenile and trashy, it is not original. It is the same crap they have been doing for years and they play out like low grade pornography. I originally thought the Danica Patrick campaign was supposed to be a spoof of the porn industry, but it appears they are mainly interested in having 14 year old boys log on to their website to see if a "Go Daddy Girl" takes her clothes off. Is Patrick really smart by cashing in with these ad abominations? If she continues to win one race every three years, she has a much better future as a shill than a driver. I can already see the late night Showtime feature called Driving Temptation where she has to drive her way out of a female prison.

While we're on the topic of sex in advertising, the Megan Fox in a bathtub commercial made me cringe. During the montage fallout from Fox posting her naked pic on the Internet, there is a moment where a mother yells for her son through a locked bathroom door. I was shocked at the suggestive nature of Timmy masturbating to sell phones, or whatever the ad was for. Unless the intended message was Fox is a fox, the point was lost on me. I can't believe I am saying this, but there are kids that watch the Super Bowl. Wouldn't it be fun to be the parent that gets to give the birds and bees talk at halftime?

Just as disturbing as the sexed up ads is the influence of violence during the Super Bowl. Every year I watch as the percentage of violent ads increase, and this year was no different. I realize football is a violent sport, and it is a testosterone driven experience, but the ads don't have to mirror this sentiment to sell me snacks. I'm sure there are several people that got a kick out of the Doritos assassin, but it felt too out of context to be humorous. That was just one of many that called upon violence to mask a lack of creativity. Why would Doritos revert to these tactics? In addition to the assassin, they provided a kid slapping his mother's suitor, a dog using a shock collar on his owner, and a man in a coffin full of Doritos.

The beer commercials had their usual 19 year old undertones and were mostly forgettable. There was a whale in the back of an SUV stemming from a bachelor party gone awry (never seen that theme before). Betty White got tackled in the mud. Several ads with "regular" people in their underwear. At least three different companies with the "retake your manhood" theme. People as dolphins. Longhorn Clydesdale (hideous creature). Troy Polamalu as a groundhog. Tebow. And more E Trade baby.

My Dad happens to love the E Trade baby, but I have had enough. The campaign was amusing when it first aired two years ago, but I'm sick of seeing talking babies, animals, and inanimate objects. Look Who's Talking came out in '89. I have seen the baby 10 thousand times. After sifting through the commercial manure for two hours, I wasn't ready for another. I wanted to see something new. It's not only football's Super Bowl, it's advertising's Super Bowl. That is the best they could come up with? Regurgitated gimmicks? Why do we as a society respond positively to such garbage?

Do ad directors have a social responsibility? Maybe not. The goal in their game is to make the most money. But with the crap they are feeding our society, and the crap our culture feeds on, they are about one step away from hiding in the bushes to get a snapshot of Lindsey Lohan in her bath robe. It takes individuals that realize their soul is not for sale to demand more from their creative team. I want to see someone break the mold, not re-filter the same crap.

It might be a harsh criticism of an average group of Super Bowl ads, but I expected more. With an industry that hires the best of the best, offering nothing other than sophomoric humor, sex, and violence is unacceptable. It might hit your target demographic, but it also highlights a problem with your product. Tell me why I should buy your product in a way that is original, entertaining, and informative. Tell me why you are good for me and better than your competitor without trying to shock me into remembering your name.

Obviously there were some winners this year. I thought the best ad was Google's study abroad spot. Clever, unique, sweet, and really highlighted how our existence has changed thanks to Google.

I thought the Oprah/Letterman/Leno ad was timely and humorous. I laughed at some of the scenes from the Green Police ad by Audi. I liked seeing the Super Bowl Shuffle brought back 25 years later (although it was a bit creepy). It was nice to see Chevy Chase and Beverly D'Angelo back as the Griswold's. And that's about it. I'm sure there are several I don't recall, but isn't that the point?

For a game that had plenty of intrigue, and was played and coached at a high level, the frequent breaks and uninspired ads really put a damper on the event. As Polamalu showed us, we will have six more weeks of winter. Six winter weeks without football. Six winter weeks plus another 46 advertisers can critique and improve on their performance this year. I really hope they can get their game together and prove there is still some talent in advertising. Just like everyone's team other than the Saints, "Wait until next year..." Guess we have to.

Closing Time

As the words of Men At Work, "who can it be now?" run through my head, I ponder the same question for this year's Super Bowl champ. The NFL has increasingly become a quarterbacks league and Super Bowl XLIV features the best from each conference. The New Orleans Saints take on the Indianapolis Colts for a chance at football immortality Sunday, in Miami.

The Super Bowl setting should feel very familiar for most Colts players including QB Peyton Manning. It was three years ago that Manning held a wet Vince Lombardi trophy after beating the Chicago Bears in Miami. Indy's routine this year will be the same including a stay at the same hotel.

Manning won his fourth MVP this season and much of the Super Bowl talk is focused on what another win will do to his all time legacy. More impressive than statistics is how Manning leads his team. He is a coach on the field, and most forget his team is directed by a rookie head coach.

Indy won every game Manning finished, and his second half dissection of the vaunted Jets defense in the AFC championship game was seriously impressive. WR Pierre Garcon is emerging as a future star. Add that to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and surprisingly talented Austin Collie, and you got a stew going, baby.

For as much familiarity and routine the Colts have going into this game, the Saints will be equally unfamiliar with their setting. This is the first time in franchise history they will appear in a Super Bowl with only a few players having any Super Bowl experience.

The Saints are credited with restoring pride to a city struck by disaster, and their success is viewed as a thrill New Orleans natives deserve after hurricane Katrina. Louisiana is clamoring with Saints fever, and most observers without a rooting interest in this game will be cheering for the Saints to pull off the upset.

Both teams had similar seasons taking undefeated records deep in the schedule. Both are led by pass heavy, high scoring offenses. Neither team was noted for their defense, but both are solid and have made big plays throughout the year to help win games. The Colts were dealt a blow when their best defensive player, Dwight Freeney, was hobbled with a serious ankle injury in the AFC championship game. Even if he plays, his effectiveness will suffer severely along with the Colts pass rush.

Saints QB Drew Brees has been unbelievable at times this year, and a Super Bowl appearance is a testament to his brilliance. New Orleans has the ability to score 40 points against anyone, and they lead the league in points per game. The Saints defense made most of their impact forcing opponents to turn the ball over, not in dominating the line of scrimmage. They were able to do both relatively well against the Vikings in the NFC championship game forcing five turnovers, and knocking around QB Brett Favre the whole game. The game plan should be similar in Miami.

The Saints lows have been lower than the Colts, but their highs have been higher. Brees has the ability to make every player eligible to catch passes a weapon. The Saints have found interesting ways to generate points with special teams and defensive scores padding already gaudy point productions.

New Orleans avoids bad voodoo since every analyst seems to be picking Indy. Strange things happen whenever a team becomes a popular favorite in big games. I seem to recall the unbeatable New England Patriots being shocked by the New York Giants a couple of years ago.

With all the hype going to Indy, I was surprised to find how favorably the Saints match up with the Colts on paper. Brees arguably had a better year than the MVP Manning. The real difference between these teams is big game experience. The Colts have it. The Saints don't. Pretty simple.

The rhythm of a Super Bowl normally starts choppy because of nervous energy. I have never been real impressed with Manning's big game production (although he did play well in his first Super Bowl appearance). He has a tendency to start slow before picking up his game. That is the only time the Saints will have an opportunity to take control. If they can put up a nice lead early, they may be able to bury the Colts. If that does not happen, Manning will find a way to win the game. It is almost a certainty the Colts will score more second half points than the Saints.

After originally believing the Colts would easily win, the hype around Manning makes me believe in the Saints. I believe Manning will get number two before he retires because I don't see him tied with brother Eli forever. The Saints will have to shrug off their pressure and turn in a good game as the underdog. If nerves are not a factor, I don't see the Colts D being able to stop Brees.

It feels like the pressure is squarely on Manning's shoulders. If Manning does direct his team to a second Super Bowl win, he deserves to be in the all time talks. Not really Joe Montana level, but certainly Tom Brady level.

It is hard to pick against a team as hot as the Colts, but you're only hot until you lose. If New Orleans doesn't have a 14 point lead at the end of the first quarter, the Colts will win. This may be more heart than head, but I think the Saints will strike early, and hold off the Manning comeback to win a thrilling Super Bowl.

Saints: 34 Colts: 31

Last Call

It has taken a great deal of effort to sit down and post my thoughts about championship Sunday in the NFL after last week's debacle. As late as this is going out, I imagine this won't get read until after the games are over, so I will keep it short.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

No team of recent memory has been more fortunate than the Jets. After getting walked into the playoffs, they played two teams that went a combined 0-5 kicking field goals. Neither the Bengals or Chargers gave a good effort at home, and the defense of the Jets was enough to keep them in games. They have done a pretty good job of ball protection and have taken advantage of their opponents mistakes.

That being said, I can't imagine there is any way that the Colts fall victim to the Jets brand of football. Indy should understand what they are up against unlike the Jets previous two opponents. The most important difference this week is Colts QB Peyton Manning, the consummate professional. Manning has not had the postseason success you would expect for a QB of his caliber, but every team that has been a thorn in his side is watching on TV.

The path to the Super Bowl could not be more perfect for Manning. Doesn't it seem inevitable that he will have two Super Bowl championships? He can't be known for tying his brother in Super Bowl victories. The Colts played a warm up last week when they beat the Baltimore Ravens who could be the twin brother of the Jets.

Once again it will be strength against strength. The Colts passing offense against the Jets blitzing defense. The Jets pressure QBs 60 percent of the snaps but Manning has a QB rating of 118 against the blitz this year. Indy boasts a more consistent defense than San Diego or Cincy. Without a passing attack, I don't see the Jets putting up enough points to keep up with Manning. Jets DB Darrelle Revis will cover Colts WR Reggie Wayne which should be Revis' toughest challenge this postseason.

The outcome shouldn't be taken for granted since a similar argument has been made against the Jets for the past two rounds by nearly everyone. The Jets have shown great resiliency to match their tremendous luck, but their luck has to run out this week. I like the Colts BIG. I think Manning leads at least four TD drives, and the Colts eclipse 30 points.

Colts 31 Jets 13

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

It seems like the best matchups this postseason have been in the NFC, but the games have all turned out to be lopsided. I thought Minnesota vs. Dallas would be a very competitive game, but the Vikings pounded Dallas like veal. Suddenly WR Sidney Rice is on top of the world and RB Adrian Peterson has taken a back seat. Brett Favre has not disappointed this year, and the playoff win has to give him confidence.

The Saints reminded the world why they are the number one seed as they pummelled the Cardinals last week. All purpose back Reggie Bush came up with a great game which occurs about every ten. QB Drew Brees was sharp early, and they put away the Cards by the start of the second quarter. The Saints offense was clicking on all cylinders, but they also faced a team that gave up 45 points the previous week. More impressive was their ability to shut down QB Kurt Warner and the Cardinals high powered offense.

The Saints weren't really tested last week, and they will actually have to play against a real NFL defense. Minnesota should feel very confident after last week's win. They have been able to win several games without Peterson getting his usual yards, and they have the best defensive line in the league.

Two things work against the Vikings though. First, they are on the road. The home (or dome) field advantage Minnesota enjoys is one of the biggest in the NFL. The few times the Vikes looked vulnerable were on the road. The second problem the Vikings have is that I will be rooting for them. They have been my safety team after drafting Peterson, and just like always, I will need them to come through to salvage some joy out of this post season.

New Orleans is not immune to some bad voodoo either. Much like San Diego, they have never been a team that has gotten over their playoff woes. In the age of BB (Before Brees), the Saints couldn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. When I lived in New Orleans, fans would wear monkeys on their backs to try and reverse the jinx of first round losses. Now that Brees has taken over, they have had more success, but still have not made it past the championship game. This would be a monumental win for the Saints and their fans. This is the first year the Saints will host an NFC championship game.

To see Favre against Manning in the Super Bowl would be tremendous. Manning against Brees would be fun, but it just doesn't have the same feel. Favre vs. Manning would be like Magic vs. Bird at the end of their careers. If Peterson can get going, it will give Favre and the rest of the offense a big boost. He's like a power hitter in a slump, and you know he is due for a breakout(for those keeping track, that is an NBA analogy followed by an MLB analogy, both to describe the NFL. Nice.) Eventually a hole will open up for him and he'll take it to the house. If the difference becomes who has the better defense, you have to go with the Vikings.

My heart says Minnesota, my head says New Orleans. Either team can win this game, the real prediction is deciding what kind of game it will be. Turnovers? Sloppy play? More defense than expected? Shootout? All of these factors are involved. Can Brett really make it to the Super Bowl this year? Is it Brees' turn? Enough! I believe the offenses will win out.

Minnesota 30 New Orleans 35

Can I Get You Another Round?

Finally! The wild card round of the playoffs is over and we can focus on the teams that really matter. Like the Chargers and Vikings. Why the Vikings? Because they have All Day, Adrian Peterson. That's why.

The first round of the playoffs had three games that were not very competitive, and one game that will be a classic forever. I knew what I was talking about when I said I would not be surprised by any of the winners, considering I missed three of my four picks. I have done pretty well picking NFL games this year, but last week was not what I expected.

If I had one lock for any game last week, it was New England defending their home field. But Baltimore won the game after the first play from scrimmage and made the Patriots look like I described them in my earlier post, The Fall of Ego (that's the first time I have plugged one of my posts, so don't hold it against me). RB Ray Rice has exceeded expectations, and appears to be the spitting image of Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew.

I never thought I would see Tom Brady get beat at home in the playoffs, but I have been waiting a long time for it to happen. I was surprised that I wasn't more excited, but I realized the Chargers might have to play the Ravens in the AFC championship. The Bolts can beat Indianapolis in their sleep but can't figure out Baltimore.

The Jets beat the Bengals on the road, and looked great doing so. If I had any guts I would have picked that game correctly, but I went against my better judgment and took the home team. I guess I forgot that you should never bet on the Bengals. But am I right in thinking that you should never bet on the Jets either?

Just making the playoffs was good enough for Cincy and they decided not to show up for the game. Who really knows how good the Jets are since they keep playing teams that are handing them the win. You wouldn't think it would happen in the playoffs, and it looks really bad for the legacy of QB Carson Palmer.

The Cowboys and Tony Romo finally got over the playoff hump and they have cemented themselves as the sexy pick for the NFC championship. Head coach Wade Phillips is safe for another year, and if I have any Dallas fans reading this, I would like to offer some insight on Phillips. He might not be the tough disciplinarian many want, and it might have taken him a few years to make his mark, but the strength of the Cowboys is their defense which he directs. I can tell you, I loved Phillips when he was the defensive coordinator for the Chargers. He put together the best San Diego defense I ever watched play. You would be wise to give him some credit for the job he did this year, regardless of what happens in Minnesota.

It was back to back poor performances for the Eagles, which is the only thing I did see coming last week. As much as I could not believe that I was taking the Cowboys to win a playoff game, I had less faith in the Eagles to rebound from the poor performance against Dallas the week prior. Eagles fans are ready to get rid of Donovan McNabb, which is Philly for you. A fresh start somewhere else might be a good idea, though. Like say...Minnesota?

Then there was the best wild card game of the decade (being just over a week old) with Cardinals QB Kurt Warner growing his illustrious legendary status. He does not lose many playoff games. Everyone in the world was picking the Packers. Green Bay did have a chance to win, but it would have been no fault of Warner's who put up one of the best statistical games ever in the postseason. He already owns most of the records in Super Bowl games.

It looked like a blowout early, but QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers stormed back and had a chance to win. Rodgers lived up to the hype he received before the game. What happened to the Packers defense? Warner, I guess.

On a night where the record for most points scored in a playoff game was broken, it was a defensive play that finally ended the game, albeit in controversy. In the end, 38 year old Warner added to his Hall of Fame resume by throwing more touchdowns (5) than incomplete passes (4), and his team continues to defend their NFC championship crown from last year.

With the Cardinals...Wow. Same guy who went to the Super Bowl with St. Louis. Twice. Can anyone tell me what any other coach or player has done since? How about the team? Someone please tell me Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. I can win that argument in 15 seconds. I wish the Vikings could trade Brett Favre for Warner right now. And I'm a Brett Favre fan.

Sorry for the rant.

I'll end it by saying, I like Kurt Warner.

Continuing...

This week should be even more interesting now that the pretenders are out of the picture. Let's take a look at the matchups.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

Arizona comes to New Orleans after an emotional win at home and a spectacular offensive output. Don't expect the game this week against the Saints to be much different. The Saints were the leagues most dominate team in the first half of the season, especially on offense. But they faltered down the stretch leaving many to doubt their legitimacy as a contender. Saints QB Drew Brees had another fantastic year leading his team to the number one seed in the NFC, but their spotty play late in the season, added to their long layoff, doesn't bode well for who dat nation.

Brees is still an infant when it comes to the playoffs, just 3-3 lifetime. The Cards might get WR Anquan Boldin back for this game which would improve an offense that just posted 51 points against what was supposed to be a good Packers defense.

I love Brees and the Saints offense, but I'm not sure the layoff was a good thing for New Orleans. They are such a rhythmic team, it's hard to see how time off could help that.

I think Arizona will ride the momentum of their first round victory and beat the Saints in a close one. The Cardinals defense will have to hold New Orleans to 34. In order for the Saints to win they will have to revert to their mid season form. Vegas has the over/under at 57 for this game. I would bet the house on the over. I can't wait to see Brees and Warner go at it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens put together their best game of the season last week, beating the Patriots convincingly in New England. Now they must go on the road and face Peyton Manning and the top seeded Colts. Indy chose to rest their star players after they secured the top seed in the AFC, and have not played a full game with their starters in several weeks. Many are concerned that the layoff will work against the momentum the Colts built throughout the year.

To me, it was a smart move with a team as old as the Colts. They have veteran players throughout their lineup which makes me think, not only do they need rest, they will be professional enough to be ready to play after the layoff.

Manning does not have the best track record in the playoffs, but it would take an unbelievable achievement for the Ravens to knock off New England and Indianapolis on the road in consecutive weeks.

Turnovers and running the ball were the keys to victory for Baltimore, last week. I think they will have a hard time getting turnovers against Manning, and they surely won't replicate the success they had running the ball. For the Ravens to have a chance, they are probably going to need QB Joe Flacco to step up and play well. Something they didn't need against the Patriots.

I think the well rested, veteran Colts will win this game in a nail biter. I like Manning to cement the win late in the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Once again, Dallas is involved in what most are projecting to be the best matchup of the weekend. Now that they have won in December and the playoffs, the Cowboys faithful are looking for the Super Bowl title.

The main difference this week is they have to do it on the road. Dallas had a great win in December against the Saints in New Orleans. All the other Cowboys wins since have been at home. The strength of the team has been defense, but they have been balanced on offense as well. It doesn't hurt that Romo is not dating a pop star and subsequently playing the best football of his career.

Minnesota comes in well rested with the ultimate veteran Brett Favre. Many teams have found a way to contain the rushing attack of the Vikings by focusing on RB Adrian Peterson every play. Peterson's true greatness is apparent with the year that Favre had. Without the run game consuming so much attention, do you really think Favre would have had his best touchdown to interception ratio? Deciding how to defend the run will be a challenge for Dallas' defense.

The other challenge will be the superb defensive line of the Vikings. With breakdowns in the secondary, the Vikings defensive line kept their defense solid, led by sack machine Jared Allen. The Cowboys have not faced a D line this good all year. The good news for Dallas is that Romo gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league, and they run a lot of three step drops which should combat the rush of Minnesota.

I think Peterson needs to get going early by breaking a big run and taking some pressure off of Favre. Peterson hasn't eclipsed the 100 yard mark in his last seven games and it seems like he's due for a breakout. Still, the Cowboys' defense is not an easy place to start.

Another tough one to call, but I think Minnesota wins at home. Expectations should be taken in baby steps for Cowboys fans, and Minnesota plays awfully well at home. The team that gets the most turnovers will win this one.

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

San Diego has been in this position several times. Playing at home in a game they are supposed to win. They seem to have a tougher time as the favorite rather than playing as an underdog.

Over the last 11 weeks of the season the Chargers have been the most consistent team in the NFL, and the leagues best offense. They boast four receivers and tight ends that are 6'4" or taller. QB Phillip Rivers deserved a better look as the league's MVP, and WR Vincent Jackson was robbed to not make the AFC Pro Bowl roster.

The Jets come into San Diego as the Cinderella of the postseason after defying the odds to even make the playoffs. Their good fortune continued when they faced a Bengals team twice in successive weeks that just rolled over and let them have their way. The term "shut down corner" is once again en vogue thanks to DB Darrelle Revis who has shut down every top receiver he lined up against this year. The Jets will look to assert their run game which is rated tops in the NFL, and play great defense, also first in the league.

It is a battle of offense against defense, but the Chargers are more experienced, more talented, and playing at home. They are also healthier than they have been all season. Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates should provide matchup nightmares for the Jets defense, and the heavy blitzing schemes of Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be countered with screen passes to Darren Sproles. Sooners fans know what Sproles can do with the ball in his hands. Should the game be close in the fourth quarter, Rivers is probably the best closer in the league, with all due respect to Manning.

In the end, I like my Chargers at home. If they protect the ball and hold the Jets to field goals, this one could be over in the third quarter.

Playoffs?!?

Wipe the slate clean, it's tournament time in the NFL and the action should be fantastic. Looking at the first round games I don't see any possible upsets. What I mean by that is no matter who wins, it shouldn't be considered an upset. After the first round, every remaining team has a great chance to make the Super Bowl.

I am very excited for the playoffs, and it doesn't hurt that the Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL. Regardless of my biases, the games look to be very entertaining, even for the fans whose team missed the playoffs. In one of the strangest twists the NFL has ever seen, three of four first round games are rematches from the previous week. Baltimore/New England is the only game that is not a rematch of week 17. All three games had lopsided outcomes which may or may not mean anything. We'll find out this weekend.

The only problem I have with the playoffs this year is the way the Jets were able to sneak in. In a year where half the AFC was competing for the last wild card spot the final week, the Jets benefited from extremely favorable scheduling and management decisions by teams that had their playoff spot locked up, effectively eliminating competitive action. I didn't see it coming because I assumed Indianapolis would defend their perfect season, but they decided to rest their starters to the benefit of the Jets. You can bet there are some fans in New England that would agree with that decision.

It is an issue that deserves attention from the NFL to keep the spirit of competition alive late in the season, although I doubt there are any real solutions available. You can't expect teams to play all their starters to the bitter end when the game effectively means nothing. Right now, the negatives out weigh the positives.

Round 1

New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets and Bengals played last week with NY dominating Cincy to the tune of 37-0. The game was played in the Meadowlands, in frigid weather, after Cincy had locked up their playoff spot. Still, the Jets defense was pretty convincing holding the Bengals to one first down and zero yards passing. Don't let the points fool you, the Jets won't put up 37 again, but they might benefit from great scheduling, once again, playing the mourning Bengals on the heels of a blowout.

The Jets and Bengals might be the teams that pose the weakest threat to win the AFC. Cincy played fairly inspired football in San Diego the week after Chris Henry died, but have since looked like a team waiting for the playoffs to start. They will have to find their offensive identity against the league's best defense, after coasting the last month of the season. I believe it will be very important for Cincinnati to score in the first quarter. They will also have to play better defense than they have recently.

I can't ignore what the Jets were able to do at home against Cincy, but I still have trouble believing they can put up enough points to win on the road. This is an extremely difficult game to pick. When right, Cincy is better, but if their play over the last month is an indicator as to how they will play this weekend, you can give it to the Jets. Cincy's offense will have RB Cedric Benson back along with WR Chad Ochocinco. I see overtime in this one. The home team takes it by a field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

This is the best game of the first round and features two teams that are quite familiar with each other. Dallas has eliminated the chatter that they can't win in December, and are now being called the favorite in the NFC by some analysts. This is a typical reaction to Dallas winning a couple of games. Let's not forget that the Boys haven't won a playoff game since 1996, and QB Tony Romo has yet to win one.

That being said, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice this year. Much like the Jets, Dallas dominated Philly last week and will have the chance to make it two weeks in a row. Unlike the Jets, Dallas gets to do it at home. The win also saw the Cowboys defense post its second straight shutout. Head coach Wade Phillips seems to have bought himself another year in Dallas (to the dismay of many Cowboys fans), but really needs a playoff win to cement this. Don't forget, it was an embarrassing loss to Philly in the final game last year that kept Dallas out of the playoffs.

Philadelphia comes in wounded, but before last week's loss they had won six games in a row. Philly gets their third crack at Dallas this year which makes them dangerous, but they bring in a makeshift offensive line without their starting center. The Eagles played most of the year with more fire power than Gilbert Arenas, and if they can find that again they are very capable of winning this game. Head coach Andy Reid always seems to have his team ready in the playoffs. Starting QB Donovan Mcnabb has nine career playoff wins.

Is this the game that gets the monkey off the backs of Romo and the Cowboys? They overcame the doubters for their stretch run in December, but the playoffs are a different animal. The biggest question might be how much can you change in six days if you are the Eagles? Romo and the Boys cannot afford to lose this game, and lucky for them they will be at home. Another toss up goes to the home team.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

So the good news is the Ravens finished out the season nicely and landed a wild card position in the playoffs. The bad news is they are playing the Patriots in Foxborough. Even though I am not wild about the Pats this season, and they just lost WR Wes Welker to injury, New England doesn't lose games at home. Especially in the playoffs.

The Pats are 5-0 all time against the Ravens. They have won 11 straight playoff games at home, and Tom Brady is 14-3 as a playoff starter. Pretty sobering if you are a Ravens fan.

I like the Ravens as a team, but this is not the same team that took a wild card seed and won the Super Bowl. The Ravens have shifted from all defense to mostly offense. The Pats should move the chains and put up points. The Ravens will rely on their run attack, which has been terrific this year, to out score the Pats. The emergence of RB Ray Rice has helped veteran RB Willis McGahee stay fresh and work more as a goal line back. QB Joe Flacco put together a solid sophomore campaign, and the Ravens will have future hall of fame safety Ed Reed back from injury in a limited capacity.

Once the playoffs start, the Patriots will still intimidate their opponents with their postseason pedigree. Tom Brady under center is enough to give the Pats confidence they can win the Super Bowl. Without Welker and a mediocre defense, there is almost no way this can happen, but I expect them to beat the Ravens soundly at home. The true test will come when they have to play outside Foxborough the following week.

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals


In what might possibly be QB Kurt Warner's final game, the Packers and Cardinals rematch in Arizona after Green Bay won 33-7, last week. The teams went in two different directions with the Pack playing as if they needed to maintain momentum, and the Cards deciding to not show any schemes and rest veteran players. Aaron Rodgers will make his postseason debut after a stellar second season as the Packers starting QB.

The Cards come into this game as a team that can play bad one week only to bounce back and look like the NFC champs from last year. WR Anquan Boldin looks like he may miss the game with an ankle injury which will spell big trouble for the Cards. With Pro Bowl DB Charles Woodson covering WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona will miss Boldin and his ability to make plays opposite Fitz. Still, this is a Cardinal team that has been here before, and with Warner under center in the playoffs, good things happen. He is 8-3 in the postseason.

The Packers enter this matchup as the NFC's best defensive team and winners in seven of their last eight games. Rodgers deserves the extensive praise he receives, and has eclipsed 4,000 yards passing both years as a starter. He is the only player in NFL history to achieve that feat. RB Ryan Grant had a solid year running for the Pack, and the offensive line troubles that plagued Green Bay early in the season were amended.

It's hard to predict how either team will play in this game. I believe the Packers to be a better team, but they are relatively inexperienced, and they are playing on the road. It will be an uphill battle for Arizona who actually played better on the road than at home this year. A complete reversal from last year. In the end, I see Green Bay as the more complete team, and I expect the Packers to advance.